In recent months, Bitcoin has demonstrated strong upward momentum, repeatedly testing the critical resistance zone between $28,000 and $28,500. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) has shown relatively weaker performance, with only a single attempt to challenge the $1,750 resistance level. This article provides an in-depth analysis of ETH’s recent price behavior and the underlying macro and micro factors shaping its trajectory.
Price Performance Overview
ETH/BTC Ratio: A Long-Term Growth Trend Amid Short-Term Weakness
Since the Merge in 2022, the ETH/BTC trading pair has been on a downward trend, reflecting Ethereum’s relative underperformance against Bitcoin. From early 2022 to June of that year, the ratio dropped from 0.081 to around 0.050. Following the successful Merge, there was a brief recovery, peaking near 0.08 in September 2022. However, since then, the ratio has resumed its decline and currently sits at approximately 0.058—approaching the weekly EMA200 support level.
Despite this near-term weakness, the long-term outlook remains positive. During the 2018 bear market, ETH/BTC hit a low of just 0.01. In the current cycle, even at its weakest points, the ratio has held above 0.05. This improvement underscores the growing value accumulation within the Ethereum ecosystem compared to previous cycles.
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Technical Indicators: Divergence with Bitcoin
On the daily chart, Ethereum has remained below the EMA200 since its pullback on August 18. The MACD indicator is only now approaching the zero line, signaling weak bullish momentum. In contrast, Bitcoin reclaimed the EMA200 on October 1 and saw its MACD cross into positive territory—indicating stronger institutional and investor confidence in BTC over ETH at this stage.
Key Factors Influencing ETH’s Recent Performance
Ethereum’s price dynamics are shaped by a complex mix of macroeconomic forces and on-chain fundamentals. Below are the most significant factors driving its recent movement.
Declining Gas Fees and Return to Inflation
In August and September 2025, on-chain activity on Ethereum cooled significantly. A lack of new high-profile projects and several high-impact security incidents—including major hacks and rug pulls in anticipated airdrop ecosystems—dampened user engagement.
As a result, average gas fees have consistently stayed below 10 gwei. With reduced transaction volume and lower fee income for validators, Ethereum has entered a short-term inflationary phase. Over the past 30 days, ETH supply has increased by 27,000 tokens, resulting in an annualized inflation rate of 0.275%.
It's important to note that this is a temporary shift. Since the Merge, Ethereum remains deflationary overall, having burned 277,000 ETH net, with a cumulative deflation rate of -0.217%.
Slowing Staking Growth and Reduced Queue
As of early 2025, there are approximately 844,000 active staking validators, securing around 27 million ETH—representing a 25.33% staking ratio of total supply.
While staking adoption continues to grow overall, the pace of new deposits has slowed notably compared to Q2 2025. Additionally, the number of validators waiting to enter the staking queue has dropped to just 5,723, one of the lowest levels since the Shanghai upgrade.
Given Ethereum’s daily activation limit of 2,700 validators, this backlog can be cleared in under three days—highlighting subdued demand for new staking entries despite favorable yield conditions.
👉 See how staking trends are shaping ETH’s supply dynamics in real time.
Founder Activity: Vitalik Buterin’s ETH Movements
Over the past two months, wallet addresses associated with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin have shown consistent outflows to exchanges. On October 7 alone, 1,000 ETH (worth ~$1.64 million)** was transferred to Bitstamp. In total, about **4,400 ETH (~$7.23 million) has been moved to centralized platforms during this period.
While these amounts are negligible relative to Ethereum’s $300+ billion market cap, such actions can influence market sentiment. Retail investors often interpret founder sell-offs as bearish signals, potentially weakening holding confidence during volatile periods.
FTX Hacker-Driven Selling Pressure
One of the most impactful short-term factors has been the resumption of selling activity by the FTX hacker group. After remaining dormant for over ten months following FTX’s collapse in late 2022—during which they secured 185,000 ETH (~$3.08 billion at the time) across 13 addresses—the hacker began moving funds starting September 30.
Between September 30 and October 6:
- 75,000 ETH (~$1.2 billion) was withdrawn from five addresses.
- 71,000 ETH was swapped into BTC via THORChain.
- 2,700 ETH was converted to tBTC and bridged back to Bitcoin via Threshold Network.
- 1,500 ETH was funneled through RAILGUN_Project for privacy shielding.
The volume of cross-chain swaps triggered a temporary maintenance halt on THORChain on October 6. As of now, 110,000 ETH (~$1.76 billion) remains in eight active hacker-controlled wallets.
This concentrated selling pressure directly contributed to downward price action in early October and created short-term fear in derivatives markets.
Derivatives Market Sentiment: Declining Open Interest
Open interest in ETH futures contracts has been on a steady decline throughout 2025:
- Peak interest occurred in January at 2.37 million ETH when price reached $1,600.
- A secondary high of 1.22 million ETH was seen in April near $2,000.
- By August 18 (pre-pullback), it had dropped to 890,000 ETH.
- Current open interest stands at 730,000 ETH.
This represents:
- A 45% drop from年初 highs,
- A 37% decline from April levels,
- And a 17% decrease since late August.
Reduced leverage and participation suggest waning speculative appetite and a shift toward risk-off positioning among traders.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Ethereum still deflationary after recent inflation?
A: Yes. While short-term inflation occurred due to low gas fees and reduced burning, Ethereum remains net deflationary since the Merge, with over 277,000 ETH removed from circulation overall.
Q: Does Vitalik Buterin selling ETH affect its price?
A: Not directly due to volume size, but psychologically yes. Large movements by core figures can trigger sentiment shifts, especially during uncertain market conditions.
Q: How does the FTX hacker selling impact ETH?
A: It creates immediate sell-side pressure and increases volatility. However, once these tokens are absorbed by the market or re-staked, the impact diminishes.
Q: What does low staking queue depth indicate?
A: It reflects reduced urgency among new participants to stake ETH—possibly due to lower yields or macro uncertainty—but doesn't signal rejection of staking itself.
Q: Why is ETH underperforming BTC recently?
A: Several reasons: stronger institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, slower narrative momentum for Ethereum upgrades, and increased risk aversion favoring BTC as digital gold.
Q: Could ETH regain strength against BTC?
A: Potentially. If Layer 2 adoption accelerates or major protocol upgrades like EIP-4844 deliver tangible scalability improvements, investor focus may rotate back to ETH.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s recent price action reflects a confluence of technical weakness, temporary inflationary supply dynamics, reduced speculative interest, and external sell pressure from known entities like the FTX hacker group. Despite these headwinds, its long-term fundamentals remain robust—evidenced by sustained ecosystem growth, high staking participation, and structural deflation over time.
While short-term performance lags behind Bitcoin, Ethereum continues to evolve as a foundational platform for decentralized applications. As macro conditions stabilize and network upgrades enhance scalability and efficiency, ETH may reassert its role as a leading digital asset in the crypto economy.
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