Bitcoin (BTC) is once again under intense scrutiny as a prominent crypto analyst raises alarm over a rare technical signal that has historically preceded some of the most severe market downturns. Ali Martinez, a well-known trader and market analyst with over 139,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), has issued an urgent warning: the Tom DeMark Sequential (TD Sequential) indicator has triggered a quarterly sell signal—suggesting a potential correction of more than 63% from current levels.
With Bitcoin trading around $107,850 at the time of writing, this development has sparked renewed debate among investors about the sustainability of the current bull run and what lies ahead for the flagship cryptocurrency.
What Is the TD Sequential Indicator?
The TD Sequential is a sophisticated technical analysis tool developed by market analyst Tom DeMark. It's designed to identify potential price exhaustion points and trend reversals by analyzing price patterns and momentum over time. The indicator counts price bars in a sequence and generates buy or sell signals when specific thresholds are met—particularly useful in spotting overbought or oversold conditions.
What makes this indicator stand out in the crypto space is its track record. According to Martinez, it has accurately predicted every major Bitcoin crash in recent history.
"This one indicator has predicted every major Bitcoin crash—and it just flashed again. The Tom DeMark Sequential just gave a quarterly sell signal. This is a rare warning that has historically preceded brutal drawdowns."
A History of Accurate Crash Predictions
Martinez points to two pivotal moments in Bitcoin’s volatile history where the TD Sequential signaled trouble well in advance:
- 2015: The same quarterly sell signal appeared, followed by a devastating 75% decline in BTC’s price.
- 2018: Another identical setup emerged, leading to an even steeper drop—over 85%—during one of the most infamous crypto winters.
Now, in 2025, the indicator has activated once more, raising concerns that history could be repeating itself.
"If this plays out like before, Bitcoin could drop below $40,000," warns Martinez—a staggering fall from current valuations and one that would erase trillions in market capitalization across the broader digital asset ecosystem.
👉 Discover how top traders analyze market cycles before major shifts occur.
Declining Transaction Activity Signals Weak Demand
Beyond the technical signal, Martinez supports his bearish outlook with on-chain data showing weakening demand and reduced large-scale transaction activity.
Citing figures from blockchain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, he notes that between May 22nd and June 29th, the number of Bitcoin transactions exceeding $100,000 dropped sharply—from 30,840 to 16,860. That represents a 45% decline in high-value transfers within just over a month.
This kind of pullback often indicates institutional or whale investors reducing exposure or pausing accumulation—behavior commonly seen before significant market corrections.
Additionally, data from CryptoQuant reveals a troubling trend in buyer sentiment. Over the past 30 days, net buying pressure has collapsed by 36,988 BTC, resulting in what Martinez describes as "apparent demand" falling to -37,000 BTC.
“Apparent demand for Bitcoin has dropped to -37,000 BTC, signaling a sharp decline in buying interest!”
Such negative net demand suggests that sellers are currently dominating the market—a red flag for long-term holders and short-term traders alike.
Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
The current market narrative revolves around several key themes:
- Bitcoin price prediction
- BTC crash warning
- TD Sequential indicator
- Bitcoin technical analysis
- Crypto market correction
- On-chain data analysis
- Bitcoin bearish signal
- Market cycle indicators
These terms reflect growing investor interest in understanding whether the current uptrend is nearing exhaustion—and whether protective strategies should be considered.
👉 Learn how to interpret advanced trading indicators before volatility spikes.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the TD Sequential indicator?
A: The TD Sequential is a technical analysis tool created by Tom DeMark that identifies potential trend reversals by counting price bars and measuring momentum. It’s widely respected for its ability to detect market exhaustion points.
Q: Has the TD Sequential been accurate for Bitcoin in the past?
A: Yes. Historical data shows it generated strong sell signals before both the 2015 and 2018 Bitcoin crashes, which saw price declines of 75% and over 85%, respectively.
Q: What does a 63% drop mean for Bitcoin’s price?
A: If Bitcoin falls by 63% from its current level near $108,000, it would drop to approximately **$39,960**, aligning with Martinez’s forecast of a sub-$40,000 outcome.
Q: Are there other signs supporting a market downturn?
A: Yes. On-chain metrics show declining large transaction volumes and negative net demand (-37,000 BTC), indicating weakening investor appetite and increasing selling pressure.
Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin based on this warning?
A: This analysis reflects one trader’s interpretation of technical and on-chain data. While the signals are concerning, investors should conduct their own research and consider risk tolerance before making decisions.
Q: Can Bitcoin recover quickly after such a drop?
A: Historically, yes. After both the 2015 and 2018 crashes, Bitcoin eventually entered new bull markets—though recovery periods ranged from months to years. Market cycles tend to repeat, but timing remains unpredictable.
Market Psychology and Investor Behavior
One of the most critical aspects of any major correction is investor psychology. When powerful indicators like TD Sequential flash red—and are amplified by social media—the resulting fear can become self-fulfilling. Panic selling, margin liquidations, and reduced liquidity often accelerate declines beyond what fundamentals alone might suggest.
That said, contrarian investors may view such warnings as opportunities. Deep corrections have historically served as entry points for those with long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s value proposition.
👉 See how professional traders manage risk during volatile market phases.
Final Thoughts: Caution Amid Uncertainty
While no single indicator guarantees future outcomes, the confluence of a rare quarterly TD Sequential sell signal, declining on-chain activity, and evaporating buying pressure paints a cautionary picture for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Ali Martinez’s warning serves as a timely reminder that even in strong bull markets, periods of extreme overextension can lead to sharp reversals. Whether this signal leads to another historic crash—or merely a healthy correction—remains to be seen.
For now, traders and investors alike would do well to monitor volume trends, whale movements, and broader macroeconomic factors while preparing for increased volatility ahead.
Note: All opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.