Altcoin Season Still on Hold — 3 Charts Indicate It’s Coming Soon

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Despite Bitcoin’s impressive 56% surge in 2024, the broader altcoin market has remained relatively stagnant. While BTC continues to dominate headlines and investor portfolios, altcoins have yet to experience their signature breakout period—commonly known as altseason. Historically, every major crypto cycle includes a phase where altcoins outperform Bitcoin significantly, often delivering exponential returns. However, that moment still appears to be on hold.

By analyzing three critical market indicators—Bitcoin dominance (BTCD), USDT dominance, and the altcoin market cap (ALTCAP)—we can identify strong signals that altseason may be closer than ever. These charts reveal a market on the verge of transition, with technical patterns suggesting a potential shift in momentum from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies.

Understanding Altcoin Season Sentiment

The concept of altseason refers to a market phase where capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into altcoins, driving rapid price appreciation across the broader crypto ecosystem. This rotation is typically preceded by a peak in Bitcoin’s dominance, followed by a decline as investors seek higher-growth opportunities elsewhere.

Notable analysts such as Benjamin Cowen and Zero Ika have observed that Bitcoin dominance is nearing a critical resistance zone. Cowen has long predicted that BTCD would climb toward 60%, a level now within reach. However, Zero Ika suggests this range—between 58% and 60%—may mark the top of the current cycle. According to Ika, once this zone is confirmed as resistance, a reversal could send BTCD down toward 42%, historically aligning with full-blown altseason conditions.

👉 Discover how market cycles shift from Bitcoin to altcoins and what to watch for next.

This anticipated reversal is supported by key technical structures, including a major weekly order block and Fibonacci retracement level near the current price area. Additionally, the imbalance created during the March 2023 rally suggests that a corrective move downward is likely once the final leg of the uptrend completes.

El Crypto Prof reinforces this outlook by pointing to another crucial signal: the breakdown in USDT dominance. When stablecoin dominance falls, it often indicates that traders are moving out of stable holding positions and back into risk-on assets like altcoins.

Bitcoin Dominance Nears a Potential Top

The weekly Bitcoin dominance chart reveals a classic late-stage bullish structure that often precedes a major reversal. Since September 2022, BTCD has been advancing in what appears to be a five-wave Elliott Wave pattern—the final wave of which is currently unfolding.

Within this structure, the fifth wave is forming an ending diagonal inside an ascending wedge, both of which are bearish reversal patterns. These formations typically signal exhaustion in the prevailing trend and often lead to sharp corrections.

If waves one and five are equal in length, BTCD could peak around 59.57%, just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 60.43%. This confluence of technical resistance increases the likelihood of a reversal.

Further confirmation comes from momentum indicators:

Together, these signals suggest that while Bitcoin dominance may push slightly higher, the odds of a sustained upward move are diminishing. A breakdown below key support could trigger capital rotation into altcoins.

USDT Dominance Breaks Down From Key Channel

Stablecoin dominance, particularly Tether (USDT), serves as a proxy for market sentiment. When USDT dominance rises, it often reflects risk-off behavior—investors parking funds in stablecoins amid uncertainty. Conversely, a decline suggests renewed appetite for risk assets.

The weekly USDT dominance chart shows a clear breakdown from a long-term ascending parallel channel that had contained price action since March. This channel was tested multiple times, confirming both its support and resistance levels.

In October, USDT dominance broke below the lower trendline—and last week, that same level acted as resistance upon retest (marked by the black icon), confirming the validity of the breakdown.

This move was accompanied by:

If this trend continues, USDT dominance could decline toward 4.45%, a level not seen since mid-2021. Such a drop would imply significant capital outflow from stablecoins and likely reinvestment into altcoins—a hallmark of altseason onset.

👉 Learn how stablecoin trends can predict the next major market move.

Altcoin Market Cap Shows Signs of Breakout

While Bitcoin dominance hints at an impending top and USDT dominance signals capital mobilization, the altcoin market cap (ALTCAP) chart provides direct evidence of growing bullish pressure.

Since March, ALTCAP has traded within a descending parallel channel, typically associated with corrective or consolidation phases. However, in August, price bounced higher, forming a higher low in September—suggesting strengthening buyer interest.

This week, ALTCAP made its first serious breakout attempt from the channel. Though initially unsuccessful (marked by the black icon), the structural setup remains constructive.

Elliott Wave analysis suggests that ALTCAP is in the fifth and final wave of an upward impulse that began in December 2023. A confirmed breakout above the channel would validate this wave structure and open the door for a potential rally toward $1.61 trillion—a gain of approximately 77% from current levels.

Supporting this bullish case:

Once resistance is cleared, momentum could accelerate as traders jump into underperforming altcoins anticipating outsized returns.

Is Altseason Finally Around the Corner?

All three indicators point to a market at an inflection point:

  1. Bitcoin dominance is showing signs of exhaustion near key resistance.
  2. USDT dominance has already broken down, signaling capital is leaving stablecoins.
  3. Altcoin market cap is poised for a breakout, with momentum building.

While altseason hasn’t officially begun, these converging signals suggest it may be imminent. Historically, such alignment across dominance metrics and market cap trends has preceded major altcoin rallies.

👉 Stay ahead of the next market shift with real-time data and analytics tools.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is altseason?
A: Altseason refers to a period in the crypto market when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin, often seeing rapid price increases across hundreds of tokens.

Q: How do you know when altseason is starting?
A: Key signs include a decline in Bitcoin dominance, decreasing stablecoin dominance (like USDT), and a breakout in the overall altcoin market cap.

Q: Can altseason happen if Bitcoin is still rising?
A: Yes. While Bitcoin may continue to appreciate, altseason occurs when altcoins rise faster than BTC, capturing a larger share of trading volume and investor interest.

Q: What causes altseason?
A: It’s typically driven by increased risk appetite, improved market sentiment, and capital rotation from Bitcoin into higher-growth potential altcoins.

Q: How long does altseason usually last?
A: Duration varies by cycle but can last several months. It often begins in the later stages of a bull market after Bitcoin has established strong gains.

Q: Should I sell Bitcoin to buy altcoins?
A: That depends on your risk tolerance and investment strategy. Many investors maintain BTC exposure while allocating a portion to high-potential altcoins during favorable market conditions.

Core Keywords:

With technical conditions aligning and sentiment shifting, the foundation for altseason appears to be forming. While patience is still required, the data suggests we may be closer than ever to the next major phase of the crypto bull run.