The cryptocurrency market is entering a critical phase as Bitcoin (BTC) tests a key resistance level amid growing caution among traders. While macro trends remain bullish, short-term signals suggest choppy conditions ahead—especially during the traditionally slow summer months. Understanding the technical structure, dominance metrics, and broader financial context can help investors navigate this transitional period with confidence.
BTC Holds Above Support but Faces $109K Resistance
Bitcoin continues to hold above a previously established support zone, closing just above the yellow moving average on the daily chart. This minor confirmation suggests underlying strength, but the real test lies ahead at the $109,000 resistance level. This zone is significant because it represents a confluence of Trend Breakout Oscillator (TBO) Resistance and horizontal price resistance—a double barrier that has historically halted rallies.
If BTC fails to break through $109K, a retracement toward $98,000 becomes increasingly likely over the next few weeks. However, the current pattern still resembles a bull flag formation, which typically precedes strong upward moves after consolidation. While short-term volatility may persist, the long-term structure remains constructive for higher prices later in 2025.
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Flat Trends Signal Choppy Market Conditions
Despite BTC maintaining its position above the daily TBO Cloud—indicating a "strong bullish" status—the flat TBO Slow line reveals a lack of directional momentum. A flat oscillator often signals sideways movement or market indecision, commonly referred to as "chop." This aligns with seasonal trends, as crypto markets historically experience reduced volatility during summer months.
Ethereum (ETH) remains trapped within its own daily TBO Cloud, reflecting weak volume and limited momentum. Without a clear breakout signal from ETH, altcoin sentiment is unlikely to shift dramatically in the near term. Traders should expect range-bound action rather than explosive moves unless volume surges unexpectedly.
Stablecoin Dominance Drops as BTC.D Rises
A declining Stablecoin Dominance typically signals capital rotation out of stable assets and into risk-on positions like altcoins—often a bullish precursor. However, this narrative is being offset by a simultaneous rise in Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), which has climbed back toward 66%. With its weekly RSI still above 70, BTC.D shows no signs of topping out yet.
The next major resistance for BTC.D lies at 70%. Until it rolls over—confirmed by a Close Long signal followed by a drop below the daily Cloud—altcoins are likely to underperform. This dynamic underscores Bitcoin's continued role as the market leader during uncertain phases.
ALT Dominance Metrics Show No Meaningful Recovery
Despite minor rebounds early in the week, dominance indicators for Top 10 cryptos, OTHERS, and ETH remain firmly in bearish territory. The total cryptocurrency market cap briefly threatened to close above its daily Cloud, but any rejection at BTC’s $109K resistance could drag the entire market lower.
Additionally, BVOL7D (7-Day Bitcoin Volatility) continues its decline toward its Bounce Zone. Since early May, this metric has become less reliable due to fragmented price action and reduced macro catalysts. Low volatility doesn’t always mean calm—it can also reflect apathy or waiting mode among institutional players.
DXY Breakdown Fuels Risk-On Sentiment
In traditional financial markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a lower low, with its daily RSI dipping below 25—an extreme oversold level that often precedes rallies in risk assets. This breakdown supports a broader risk-on environment across equities and commodities.
The S&P 500 is gradually climbing, while the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) achieved a higher high and confirmed a TBO Breakout. The FANG+ index is now targeting the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level, and NVIDIA (NVDA) recently printed another breakout signal. Meanwhile, the VIX continues to fall, indicating declining fear in equity markets.
Asian markets are also gaining momentum, and falling WTI crude oil prices suggest reduced geopolitical tension. Gold has re-entered its daily TBO Cloud, shifting into bearish consolidation. Even PAXG/BTC remains below the Cloud, though no fresh TBO Breakdown confirms sustained BTC outperformance just yet.
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Altcoins Struggle Amid Lingering Weakness
Across the broader altcoin ecosystem, most assets continue to fail in breaking above their daily TBO Clouds. Although there are isolated exceptions, the overall landscape remains fragile following recent news-driven sell-offs.
Take Aptos (APT) as an example: despite bouncing from deeply oversold levels, it remains down 68% from its December highs and closely mirrors broader market trends. Historical data shows that July tends to deliver a median return of around 7%, but BTC’s seasonal tendency toward consolidation means low-cap altcoins could face additional pressure.
4-Year Cycle Hints at August Upside Potential
When analyzing the OTHERS market cap through the lens of the 4-year crypto cycle, August stands out with notable strength in both 2017 and 2021. While those rallies didn’t extend far beyond the month itself, they offer context for potential short-term bounces later this year.
However, if BTC respects $109K as resistance again, further downside may unfold before any meaningful recovery takes hold. Patience will be key for traders positioning for late-year gains.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What does a flat TBO Slow line indicate?
A: A flat TBO Slow line suggests market indecision or consolidation. It often precedes choppy price action rather than a strong trend, especially common during summer months in crypto.
Q: Why is BTC.D rising while Stablecoin Dominance falls?
A: Falling Stablecoin Dominance indicates capital leaving safe-haven assets, usually bullish for alts. But rising BTC.D means most of that capital is flowing into Bitcoin instead—keeping alts suppressed.
Q: What happens if BTC rejects $109K again?
A: A rejection at $109K could trigger a pullback toward $98K over several weeks. This would likely drag down the total market cap and delay altcoin recovery.
Q: Is low BVOL7D good or bad for traders?
A: Low volatility can mean reduced opportunities for short-term traders but may precede sharp moves once momentum returns. It’s best interpreted alongside volume and macro context.
Q: How reliable is the 4-year cycle pattern?
A: While not predictive with certainty, the 4-year cycle has historically aligned with major market turns post-halving. August strength in past cycles supports cautious optimism for potential bounces.
Q: Should I buy altcoins now?
A: With BTC.D still rising and most alts stuck below key clouds, it’s premature for aggressive altcoin exposure. Wait for BTC.D reversal confirmation and broader technical improvements.
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Final Thoughts: DCA Through Chop, Stay Conservative
The strategy remains consistent: Dollar-Cost Average (DCA) through periods of consolidation, trade conservatively, and prepare for stronger upward momentum later in 2025. While macro conditions support higher prices over time, short-term resistance at $109K demands caution.
Bitcoin’s long-term trend is still bullish, but until it clears this hurdle, expect sideways action or minor pullbacks. Use this period to refine strategies, monitor dominance shifts, and stay ready for breakout signals—without chasing premature moves.
By aligning technical analysis with seasonal patterns and cross-market indicators, investors can maintain clarity even when volatility fades. The summer grind isn't glamorous—but it often sets up the strongest moves ahead.