Moon or Doom: Will Bitcoin Spark Fireworks on July 4?

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As the calendar flips toward July 4, 2025, all eyes in the crypto world are fixed on one critical threshold: $108,000. Will Bitcoin break above this psychological and technical barrier—or will it fizzle out just shy of the mark? With only days left before the deadline, traders and analysts are dissecting every signal, from price action to momentum indicators, in search of clues.

Currently trading around $106,000**, Bitcoin has pulled back slightly from its recent high near $107,640—just 0.33% below** the target. While that gap seems negligible in a market known for wild swings, repeated failures to close above $108,000 suggest deeper resistance is at play. Prediction markets like Myriad now show a **69% chance** that Bitcoin will *not* sustain above $108,000 by July 4, reflecting growing bearish sentiment despite the proximity to the goal.

Let’s dive into the technical landscape shaping this pivotal moment.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: What the Charts Reveal

👉 Discover how real-time market shifts could trigger a breakout before July 4.

At first glance, hitting $108,000 appears within reach. But in financial markets, touching a price and closing above it are two very different outcomes—one fleeting, the other meaningful.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has only managed to close above $108,000 once in the past 30 sessions—dating back to June 25. The last daily close above this level was on **June 9**, and historically, BTC has closed above $108,000 on just eight occasions ever. This rarity underscores how significant a sustained breakout would be.

Repeated attempts to breach the $107,500–$108,000 zone have been met with strong rejection. These failed breakouts are visible as long upper wicks on candlesticks—evidence of buyers pushing prices up, only to be overwhelmed by aggressive selling pressure. Each rejection strengthens the resistance, turning this range into a formidable ceiling.

Momentum Signals Caution

The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads at 17, well below the 25 threshold that confirms a strong trend. This indicates Bitcoin is drifting rather than trending—highlighting a lack of directional conviction. In such environments, prices tend to oscillate between support and resistance without making decisive moves.

Since June 25, Bitcoin has been bouncing between $107,000 and $108,000, unable to establish momentum in either direction. This sideways movement aligns perfectly with the weak ADX reading and suggests traders are in wait-and-see mode.

Meanwhile, the Momentum Compression Indicator points to increasing downward pressure on shorter timeframes. This doesn’t mean a crash is imminent, but it does imply that bearish forces are gaining traction—at the worst possible time for bulls aiming for a July 4 breakout.

A Glimmer of Hope: The Golden Cross

Despite short-term headwinds, one bullish signal remains intact: the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is still above the 200-period EMA, maintaining what’s known as a Golden Cross. This configuration typically signals that the long-term trend remains upward—even if short-term momentum is fading.

However, recent price action shows Bitcoin trading below the 50-period EMA, indicating short-term bearish dominance. For a true reversal of sentiment, price must reclaim this moving average with strong volume.

Another encouraging sign is that Bitcoin is trading above the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC)—the price level with the highest historical trading activity. Being above this level suggests accumulation and can act as a floor for further declines. Yet, without strong follow-through buying, this support may not hold if selling pressure intensifies.

The Weekend Effect: A Hidden Wildcard

A crucial but often overlooked factor is timing: July 4 falls on a Friday, with the prediction market deadline set for 23:59 UTC—which translates to early Saturday morning in many regions.

Crypto markets never sleep, but institutional participation drops significantly over weekends. Lower liquidity means:

This environment makes sustained breakouts harder to achieve. A sharp spike above $108,000 is possible—but maintaining it through the weekend requires consistent demand that may simply not materialize.

👉 See how low-liquidity periods can create explosive price moves—and how to prepare.

Key Levels to Watch

Traders should monitor these critical levels in the final stretch:

A decisive close above $108,000 could open the door to new highs. Conversely, failure might lead to a retest of support around $105,000 before any renewed attempt.

Will Bitcoin Break Through? The Verdict

Based on technical analysis alone, here’s why a sustained close above $108,000 looks unlikely:

  1. Historical Rejection Rate: At least 4–5 failed breakout attempts in recent sessions suggest strong overhead supply.
  2. Momentum Divergence: Price is near highs, but RSI and ADX show weakening strength—a classic bearish divergence.
  3. Time Decay: With only days remaining, every hour without progress reduces odds.
  4. Volume Deficit: Sustained breakouts require strong volume; current signals suggest insufficient buying pressure.
  5. Weekend Liquidity Drain: Institutional absence over the weekend weakens breakout potential when it matters most.

That said, crypto is inherently unpredictable. A single large whale transaction, unexpected regulatory news, or viral social sentiment could easily tip the scales.

While charts favor failure, the margin is razor-thin—just $2,000 separates success from disappointment. In such tight scenarios, traditional technical analysis loses some predictive edge. External catalysts may ultimately decide the outcome.

FAQ Section

Q: Can Bitcoin hit $108,000 even if it doesn’t close above it?
A: Yes—many short-term spikes occur without sustained follow-through. Hitting the price is likely; closing above it is what matters for trend confirmation.

Q: What would confirm a successful breakout?
A: A 4-hour or daily candle closing decisively above $108,000 with rising volume and ADX moving above 20 would signal genuine strength.

Q: How do prediction markets reflect Bitcoin’s odds?
A: Platforms like Myriad show a 69% probability that Bitcoin won’t close above $108,000 by July 4—indicating bearish bias among traders.

Q: Does the Golden Cross guarantee future gains?
A: No—it’s a lagging indicator suggesting long-term bullish structure, but it doesn’t prevent short-term pullbacks or consolidation.

Q: Could weekend trading help push Bitcoin higher?
A: Weekend markets are more volatile but less liquid. While sudden moves are possible, sustained rallies usually require weekday institutional participation.

Q: What should traders watch in real time?
A: Monitor volume spikes, EMA crossovers, ADX shifts above 20, and breaking of upper wicks on candlesticks for early breakout signals.

Core Keywords:

👉 Stay ahead of the next big move—track live data and indicators before the next breakout.