The cryptocurrency market has been buzzing with speculation about whether we’re currently in a full-blown bull market. Headlines tout surging prices, and social media feeds overflow with optimism. But beneath the surface, a more nuanced picture emerges—one that challenges the widely held belief that a major bull run is already underway.
Misleading On-Chain Signals: The Case of Bitcoin’s Transaction Volume
Glassnode’s latest weekly report features a chart of Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction volume (Tx Volume) that can be easily misinterpreted. At first glance, the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of transaction volume from October 2023 to early 2024 appears strikingly similar to the pattern observed between October 2020 and September 2021—a period widely recognized as a powerful bull cycle.
This visual resemblance has led some analysts and investors to conclude that we are already in the midst of a historic bull market—and that it may even be more than halfway through.
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However, this comparison overlooks a critical shift in the nature of Bitcoin transactions. Since late 2023, the network has seen explosive growth in Taproot Witness transactions, primarily driven by the rise of inscriptions and fungible tokens (runes). At peak activity, these data-heavy transactions accounted for up to 41.8% of total Tx Volume—a phenomenon entirely absent during the previous cycle.
In other words, today’s transaction volume is inflated by non-economic, speculative, and metadata-driven activity rather than genuine peer-to-peer value transfer or investor demand for Bitcoin as an asset.
Miner Revenue Tells a Different Story
A closer look at Bitcoin miner fees further undermines the narrative of a raging bull market. During the 2020–2021 bull run, miner revenues surged dramatically, peaking as users competed to get their transactions confirmed amid high demand.
In contrast, current miner fee levels—even when accounting for spikes during inscription and rune mints—remain significantly lower than those seen in the previous cycle. Once you strip away the temporary boosts from NFT-like activity on Bitcoin, the base layer of fee income reflects only modest network usage.
This suggests that while there is speculative excitement around new asset types on Bitcoin, broader adoption and organic demand for Bitcoin as a store of value or medium of exchange have not reached previous highs.
Seasonal Trends vs. Structural Bull Markets
The so-called “bull market” observed between October 2023 and March 2024 may not be a true bull cycle at all. Instead, it appears to be a confluence of two well-documented seasonal patterns:
- Autumn rally (October–November): Historically strong due to post-summer liquidity return and institutional positioning.
- Spring surge (January–March): Often fueled by tax-season inflows and renewed investor confidence at the start of the fiscal year.
These seasonal upticks have been amplified by the launch frenzy surrounding new digital assets on Bitcoin—particularly inscriptions and runes—which brought short-term attention and trading volume to the ecosystem.
But seasonality alone does not constitute a bull market. A true bull cycle is defined by sustained upward price momentum, increasing institutional participation, expanding on-chain fundamentals, and macroeconomic tailwinds—not just cyclical trading patterns or speculative minting activity.
Exchange Trading Volume Shows No Structural Growth
Supporting this interpretation, spot trading volume across major cryptocurrency exchanges since November 2022 reveals no clear upward trend. Rather than showing consistent growth indicative of rising market participation, volume fluctuates within a predictable seasonal band.
There are no signs of breakout activity suggesting widespread capital inflows or new investor onboarding. This lack of structural growth in trading volume further weakens the argument for an ongoing supercycle.
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Debunking the “Halving = Bull Market” Myth
One of the most persistent narratives in crypto is that Bitcoin halvings inevitably trigger bull markets, and that bull cycles occur every four years. While this pattern held true in past cycles, it’s essential to understand why—and why it may not repeat this time.
Bitcoin’s early cycles coincided closely with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rhythm. Born in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin’s first halvings occurred near the end of Fed tightening cycles, just as policymakers began cutting rates and injecting liquidity—phases aligned with the “recovery” stage in the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock model.
But in 2024, despite being a halving year, the Fed’s monetary easing has been delayed by persistent inflation. Interest rates remain elevated, and quantitative tightening continues. Without loose monetary policy to fuel risk appetite, the usual catalysts for a broad-based bull market are missing.
Thus, the absence of a strong bull run in 2024 doesn’t disprove Bitcoin’s long-term potential—it simply decouples myth from reality. The halving is a supply-side shock, but demand depends on macro conditions.
What This Means for 2025–2026
While it may be disappointing for those expecting explosive gains in 2024, there’s reason for optimism ahead. If monetary policy shifts toward easing in late 2024 or early 2025—as many economists anticipate—a powerful convergence could occur:
- Post-halving supply scarcity
- Renewed liquidity from central banks
- Maturing institutional infrastructure
- Growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs and Layer 2 innovations
This combination sets the stage for a genuine supercycle likely peaking in 2025–2026, rather than one prematurely declared in 2024.
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- Bitcoin bull market
- Crypto market cycle
- Bitcoin halving 2024
- On-chain analysis
- Inscriptions and runes
- Miner fees
- Seasonal trends in crypto
- Macroeconomic impact on crypto
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Are we in a Bitcoin bull market in 2024?
A: Not necessarily. While prices rose in late 2023 and early 2024, much of the momentum was driven by seasonal trends and speculative activity around inscriptions and runes—not broad-based demand or macro support.
Q: Why isn’t the 2024 halving causing a bull market like before?
A: Because macroeconomic conditions differ. Previous halvings coincided with Fed rate cuts and liquidity expansion. In 2024, high interest rates and tight monetary policy have delayed those bullish forces.
Q: How do inscriptions affect Bitcoin’s transaction volume?
A: Inscriptions add metadata to Bitcoin transactions, increasing block space usage. This inflates transaction volume metrics without reflecting real economic value transfer, distorting comparisons with past cycles.
Q: What indicators confirm a real bull market?
A: Sustained increases in miner revenue (excluding speculation), rising spot trading volume, institutional inflows (e.g., via ETFs), on-chain active addresses, and favorable macro conditions.
Q: When might the next major crypto bull run happen?
A: If monetary policy turns accommodative in 2025, combined with post-halving scarcity effects, the stage could be set for a significant bull cycle peaking in 2025–2026.
Q: Can seasonal trends mimic bull markets?
A: Yes. The “autumn rally” and “spring surge” often create short-term price increases that resemble early bull phases, especially when amplified by new technological narratives like ordinals or runes.