Ethereum (ETH) is showing strong signs of a potential breakout that could propel it toward new all-time highs, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. If key technical patterns confirm, the market may be setting up for a powerful upward move — one that aligns with growing institutional interest and on-chain momentum.
With Ethereum closing in on a 38% weekly return — its highest since December 2020 — the momentum is undeniable. But beyond price action alone, multiple technical and on-chain indicators suggest a deeper shift is underway in market sentiment and positioning.
Ethereum Breaks Key Resistance: A Bullish Signal Confirmed
On May 7, Ethereum opened its weekly candle at $1,807 and has since surged past the $1,900 realized price level — the average cost basis of all current holders. This milestone is more than just a number; it signals that a majority of investors are now in profit, potentially unlocking new buying power from those reinvesting gains.
The breakout above this critical support-turned-resistance zone underscores renewed confidence. Notably, Binance has emerged as the most active exchange for Ethereum trading, with significant net outflows and heightened trading volume. These dynamics reflect strong market liquidity and growing trader conviction in further upside.
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Peter Brandt’s “Fly Me to the Moon” Technical Outlook
Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently highlighted a developing structure on Ethereum’s chart that, if confirmed, could trigger a dramatic rally. In a post on X, Brandt pointed to an ascending wedge pattern — typically considered bearish — but emphasized that a breakout above its upper boundary could invalidate the bearish implication and instead fuel explosive growth.
His analysis suggests that such a breakout could push Ethereum toward a target range between $3,800 and $4,800, representing a significant leap from current levels. This projection marks a notable shift from his earlier cautious stance in 2024 and reflects broader market optimism returning to ETH.
While ascending wedges often precede reversals, breakouts above resistance can act as powerful springboards — especially when supported by strong fundamentals and increasing participation.
Why This Time Might Be Different
Several factors differentiate this potential move from past rallies:
- On-chain strength: The rise in active addresses and transaction volume supports organic demand.
- Exchange dynamics: Net outflows from exchanges like Binance suggest accumulation rather than selling pressure.
- Market structure evolution: Ethereum’s role in DeFi, NFTs, and layer-2 ecosystems continues to expand, reinforcing long-term value accrual.
Futures Market Heats Up: OI Jumps 42% in Days
One of the clearest signals of intensifying interest comes from the derivatives market. Ethereum’s open interest (OI) in futures contracts surged 42% between May 8 and May 11, 2025 — climbing from $21.3 billion to $30.4 billion, nearing its all-time high of $32 billion.
This rapid increase indicates growing participation from both retail and institutional traders. Higher OI often precedes increased volatility, meaning the stage could be set for sharp price movements — either up or down — depending on macro sentiment and technical follow-through.
Moreover, elevated open interest during a rally suggests conviction behind the move, reducing the likelihood of a quick reversal unless major liquidation zones are triggered.
High-Timeframe Charts Show Structural Bullish Reversal
Looking at the weekly chart, Ethereum has decisively reclaimed both the 50-week and 100-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). Historically, such reclaims have marked the end of bear markets or prolonged consolidations.
While retesting these EMAs may lead to short-term pullbacks, they often serve as launchpads for sustained bullish trends. Additionally, Fibonacci retracement analysis shows ETH retesting the 0.5 to 0.618 level — approximately $2,500 — which aligns with healthy consolidation before another leg up.
This phase appears to represent the first stage of recovery. However, traders should expect possible sideways movement or minor corrections before the next impulse wave.
Liquidity Pools and Trader Behavior: What the Data Reveals
Recent parabolic price action has created dense clusters of buy-side liquidity between $2,200 and $2,400, as shown by liquidation heatmaps. This zone was heavily targeted during a recent short squeeze that pushed prices to $2,608 — a clear sign of strong bullish momentum overcoming bearish bets.
However, not all signals point upward. The active buy-to-sell ratio on perpetual swaps has begun to cool and dipped below 1 on May 10. A ratio under 1 indicates that more traders are actively selling than buying, which can signal short-term caution or profit-taking.
👉 See how top traders interpret real-time Ethereum funding rates and order flow.
This shift suggests that while long-term sentiment remains positive, short-term overextension may prompt consolidation around the $2,500 level before another breakout attempt.
Key Takeaway:
Market structure favors bulls if key resistance holds and buying pressure resumes. But traders should remain alert to volatility spikes and manage risk accordingly.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is an ascending wedge pattern, and why does it matter for Ethereum?
A: An ascending wedge forms when price consolidates between two rising trendlines. It's typically bearish, but a breakout above the upper trendline can trigger strong upward momentum — exactly what traders are watching for in ETH.
Q: What does it mean that Ethereum broke above its realized price?
A: The realized price represents the average cost basis of all existing ETH holders. Breaking above it means most investors are now profitable, which can reduce selling pressure and encourage reinvestment.
Q: How reliable is Peter Brandt’s analysis?
A: Brandt is a well-known technical analyst with decades of experience in traditional and crypto markets. While no prediction is guaranteed, his chart-based methodology is respected among professional traders.
Q: What causes open interest (OI) to rise in crypto futures?
A: Rising OI indicates new positions are being opened. When it happens during a rally, it usually reflects growing confidence and increased leverage use — both bullish signs until profit-taking begins.
Q: Why did the buy/sell ratio drop below 1? Should I be worried?
A: A ratio below 1 means more traders are actively selling than buying at that moment. It often follows sharp rallies and suggests short-term caution or profit-taking — not necessarily a trend reversal.
Q: Where could Ethereum go next if it breaks higher?
A: If technical patterns confirm and momentum returns, targets between $3,800 and $4,800 become plausible based on measured moves and historical volatility expansion.
👉 Explore live Ethereum charts with advanced technical overlays and volume analytics.
Final Thoughts: A Bull Case Built on Structure and Sentiment
Ethereum’s current trajectory combines technical strength, rising derivatives activity, and improving on-chain metrics. While short-term consolidation near $2,500 is possible — especially with cooling buy pressure — the broader setup remains constructive.
If the ascending wedge resolves to the upside, we could see one of the most powerful phases in Ethereum’s history unfold. Traders should watch for confirmation through sustained closes above resistance levels and renewed volume expansion.
As always, risk management is crucial. The path higher won’t be linear — but for those focused on long-term trends, this moment may represent a pivotal inflection point.