Recent on-chain data suggests that despite Bitcoin’s (BTC) strong performance in 2025, long-term holders (LTHs) are still far from reaching the peak profitability they enjoyed during key moments of the 2024 bull run. According to fresh analysis from CryptoQuant, a staggering $140,000 price point may be necessary for these seasoned investors to regain their former profit highs.
This revelation comes amid growing signs of profit-taking across the network, as BTC attempts to stabilize after a volatile ascent. While short-term fluctuations dominate headlines, deeper chain metrics reveal a market in transition — one where conviction is being tested, and long-term value accumulation remains central to the narrative.
Why $140,000 Matters for Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders
The magic number isn’t arbitrary. CryptoQuant’s research hinges on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio — a trusted metric used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued based on the average cost basis of all circulating coins.
As of now, the average realized profit for long-term holders sits around 220%. That means if you bought and held BTC for at least six months without selling, your investment has more than tripled in value — impressive by most standards.
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But when compared to the euphoric peaks of early and late 2024 — when realized profits hit 300% and 350%, respectively — today’s returns appear modest. The last time LTHs saw such windfalls, Bitcoin briefly flirted with $70,000 before retracing.
To match those historic profit levels again, BTC would need to surge past $100,000 and climb all the way to **$140,000**, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who detailed the findings in a recent "Quicktake" report.
“The current profit levels feel substantial,” Darkfost noted, “but they still fall short of the cycle’s top-tier gains. Reaching parity with 2024’s peak requires a price magnet near $140,000 — a level many are now watching closely.”
At present, the average cost basis (or realized price) for long-term holders stands at approximately **$33,800**. This means that even at today’s prices — hovering between $65,000 and $75,000 — most long-term investors are sitting on healthy unrealized gains. However, true psychological alignment with the previous cycle’s peak euphoria demands significantly higher valuations.
Market in Transition: Profit-Taking and Price Consolidation
Despite the allure of future highs, recent weeks have seen increased selling pressure from LTHs. As Bitcoin repeatedly tests resistance levels without sustained breakthroughs, some early believers are choosing to lock in profits.
This behavior is typical during mature phases of a bull market. With over $2.5 trillion in unrealized profits currently sitting across the network — as reported by Cointelegraph — even minor shifts in sentiment can trigger short-term volatility.
Yet analysts remain confident that the broader uptrend remains intact. The current price action reflects a classic accumulation and consolidation phase, where volatility contracts before the next leg upward.
Rekt Capital, a well-known technical analyst, highlighted this dynamic in a recent weekly BTCUSD analysis posted on X (formerly Twitter). He pointed out that Bitcoin is attempting to break out of a descending trend channel that has held since mid-May 2025.
“A breakout followed by a retest is the expected next move,” Rekt Capital explained. “We could be entering the final months of this bull phase, leading into a sharp parabolic move and eventual trend reversal.”
This pattern aligns with historical BTC cycles, where prolonged consolidation precedes explosive rallies — often driven by institutional inflows, macroeconomic shifts, or regulatory clarity.
Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
Understanding Bitcoin’s path to $140,000 requires tracking several key themes that shape investor behavior:
- Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs)
- BTC price prediction 2025
- Bitcoin MVRV ratio
- Unrealized profit Bitcoin
- BTC market cycle analysis
- Bitcoin accumulation phase
These keywords not only reflect current search trends but also encapsulate the core concerns of traders and hodlers alike: When will the next surge happen? Are we near the top? And who’s still buying?
The answers lie beneath the surface — in blockchain data, wallet flows, and behavioral economics.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is $140,000 considered a key price target for Bitcoin?
A: $140,000 represents the price level at which long-term holders would regain the same level of unrealized profit they experienced during the peak months of 2024. This figure is derived from MVRV analysis and reflects both cost basis and market psychology.
Q: What is the MVRV ratio and why does it matter?
A: The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization to its realized capitalization — essentially showing whether coins are being traded above or below their last movement value. It's widely used to identify potential tops and bottoms in the market cycle.
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Q: Are long-term holders currently selling Bitcoin?
A: Yes, there has been an uptick in profit-taking among long-term holders. However, this is considered normal during mid-to-late stages of a bull market and doesn’t necessarily signal a reversal.
Q: How much unrealized profit exists in the Bitcoin network today?
A: Estimates suggest over **$2.5 trillion** in unrealized gains are currently held across Bitcoin addresses. Much of this belongs to investors who bought below $40,000.
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: Yes. Despite short-term corrections and consolidation, technical indicators and on-chain fundamentals continue to support the idea that Bitcoin remains within an ongoing bull cycle — albeit entering its later stages.
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The Road Ahead: From Consolidation to Climax
While $140,000 may seem like a distant dream to some, history shows that Bitcoin often exceeds even the boldest predictions during its most fervent phases. The combination of limited supply, increasing institutional adoption, halving-driven scarcity, and global macro uncertainty continues to fuel demand.
Moreover, the current pullback in momentum could be precisely what the market needs — time for weak hands to exit and strong hands to accumulate before the next surge.
For long-term believers, patience remains a virtue. For tactical traders, opportunities abound in volatility.
What’s clear is that while we’re not yet at the peak of this cycle, we’re likely closing in on its most explosive chapter. Whether BTC reaches $140,000 in 2025 or early 2026 depends on a complex interplay of technicals, sentiment, and macro forces — but one thing is certain: the journey there will be anything but quiet.