The cryptocurrency market held steady on Thursday as traders digested strong macroeconomic data and repositioned portfolios. While most major digital assets traded in tight ranges, Bitcoin showed renewed signs of strength—potentially setting the stage for a breakout above its all-time high.
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin rose 0.4% over the past 24 hours, hovering near $109,800 and briefly touching a high of $110,590. Meanwhile, Ethereum climbed above $2,590 after a period of consolidation, though its technical outlook remains uncertain. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, price movements were largely subdued—except for BONK, a meme coin tied to the Solana ecosystem, which surged 10%.
👉 Discover how market momentum could push Bitcoin past $112,000 this year.
Bitcoin (BTC): Building Momentum for a Breakout?
Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,781, reflecting modest daily gains but signaling underlying bullish strength. Notably, it recently broke above a bearish trend channel (marked by the yellow line) for the first time in 39 days and briefly reached an intraday high of $111,814—an all-time peak that has reignited investor optimism.
On the daily chart, several technical indicators point to a market in transition from consolidation to potential acceleration.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Room to Run
The RSI stands at 60, which suggests healthy upward momentum without entering overbought territory (typically defined as above 70). Historically, RSI readings between 50 and 70 are considered ideal for sustained uptrends. This implies that Bitcoin still has breathing room before facing significant profit-taking pressure.
Average Directional Index (ADX): A Market at a Turning Point
The ADX is currently at 12, indicating a period of low trend strength and market consolidation. When ADX values fall below 20, it often signals that a breakout—either up or down—is on the horizon. Given Bitcoin’s recent price action and rising investor interest, many analysts believe the next move will be upward.
Moving Averages: Bullish Alignment
A key long-term bullish signal comes from the moving averages. The 50-day EMA is now firmly above the 200-day EMA—a configuration known as the "golden cross." This formation typically reflects strong buying pressure and is associated with healthy bull markets.
Squeeze Momentum Indicator: Volatility Compression Ahead of Explosion
The squeeze momentum indicator is flashing "on," suggesting that volatility is being compressed. In technical analysis, such periods of low volatility often precede sharp price movements. Once the squeeze releases, Bitcoin could experience explosive movement—potentially breaking through resistance levels with strong volume.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Understanding these levels helps traders anticipate potential reversals or breakouts:
- Immediate support: $108,000 (psychological level and recent consolidation zone)
- Strong support: $104,000 (convergence of the 50-day EMA)
- Immediate resistance: $110,000 (psychological barrier)
- Strong resistance: $112,000 (near recent cycle highs)
If Bitcoin sustains above $110,000, the path toward $115,000 and beyond becomes increasingly viable.
👉 Learn how to identify early signals before major crypto breakouts.
Ethereum (ETH): Can It Overcome Technical Headwinds?
Ethereum edged higher today, trading at $2,592 after rebounding from a daily low of $2,374. While its price movement has been less dramatic than Bitcoin’s, ETH is showing subtle signs of accumulation.
RSI and ADX: Neutral But Preparing?
The RSI for Ethereum sits at 57—slightly bullish but not yet confirming strong momentum. Like Bitcoin, its ADX reads 12, signaling a consolidative phase. However, this may simply reflect market patience ahead of a larger directional move.
The Death Cross Conundrum
A notable bearish pattern remains visible: the "death cross," where the 50-day moving average trades below the 200-day MA. This formation typically signals long-term bearish sentiment. Yet today’s upward price action suggests that buyers are stepping in, potentially laying the groundwork for a reversal.
If Ethereum maintains upward momentum and closes above the 50-day EMA (~$2,700), it could trigger short-covering and attract institutional interest—possibly leading to a bullish cross in the coming weeks.
Squeeze Momentum: Early Signs of Expansion
The squeeze momentum indicator is also "on" for Ethereum, mirroring Bitcoin’s pattern. Combined with today’s breakout attempt above key resistance, this hints that ETH may be entering a phase of increasing volatility—and potentially strong price appreciation.
Key ETH Levels to Watch
- Immediate support: $2,500 (psychological floor)
- Strong support: $2,400 (recent swing low)
- Immediate resistance: $2,700 (50-day EMA zone)
- Strong resistance: $2,900 (200-day EMA convergence)
A decisive move above $2,700 could open the door to $3,100 or higher by late 2025.
Macroeconomic Backdrop: Strong Labor Data Influences Markets
Outside crypto, U.S. economic data painted a picture of resilience. The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June—surpassing both the forecasted 110,000 and May’s revised figure of 144,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%.
This strength reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated—likely within the 4.25%-4.5% range—for longer than previously anticipated.
Equity markets responded positively:
- Dow Jones gained 75 points (+0.17%)
- S&P 500 rose 0.38%
- Nasdaq led gains with a 0.62% increase
However, rising bond yields capped broader enthusiasm. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.334%, reflecting cooler investor sentiment toward near-term rate cuts.
Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000 (below the 240,000 forecast), and the four-week average declined to 241,500—further evidence of a robust labor market.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does a breakout above the bearish trend channel mean for Bitcoin?
A: It suggests weakening bearish control and increasing buying pressure. Historically, such breaks have preceded significant rallies.
Q: Is Bitcoin overbought at $110,000?
A: Not yet. With an RSI of 60 and no extreme leverage in futures markets, Bitcoin still has room to appreciate before reaching overheated conditions.
Q: Why is the golden cross important for Bitcoin?
A: It signals long-term bullish momentum, often confirmed by increased institutional accumulation and sustained price support.
Q: Can Ethereum outperform Bitcoin in the next rally?
A: It’s possible. If ETH breaks above $2,700 and flips the 50-day EMA into support, it could attract disproportionate buying due to its lower valuation relative to fundamentals.
Q: How do rising Treasury yields affect crypto prices?
A: Higher yields make risk-free assets more attractive, which can pressure speculative markets like crypto. However, if inflation remains contained, equities and digital assets can still rise together.
Q: What should traders watch next?
A: Key levels include Bitcoin’s hold above $108,000 and Ethereum’s push toward $2,700. Also monitor on-chain activity and derivatives funding rates for early clues.
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Final Outlook
Bitcoin is once again flirting with record highs, supported by improving technical structure and resilient macroeconomic fundamentals. While short-term consolidation is likely, the broader trajectory appears upward—especially if macro conditions stabilize and institutional demand continues to grow.
Ethereum remains in a critical phase. A successful retest of $2,700 could trigger a technical reversal and reinvigorate altcoin momentum across the board.
As volatility builds and momentum indicators flash early warnings, traders should prepare for potentially explosive moves in both directions—but with increasing odds favoring another leg up in the bull cycle.
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