As the Federal Reserve prepares for its highly anticipated monetary policy decision, the cryptocurrency market is riding a wave of optimism. Bitcoin surged past $61,000 on Tuesday—the highest intraday level since August 8—fueling renewed speculation about its future trajectory. With key technical indicators flashing bullish signals and macroeconomic conditions tilting in favor of risk assets, many analysts are asking: *Could Bitcoin reach $90,000 within the next 12 months?*
This article explores the confluence of technical momentum, market sentiment, and macroeconomic catalysts driving Bitcoin’s latest rally, while also examining what lies ahead as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement.
Market-Wide Gains Amid Fed Watch
On the eve of the FOMC meeting, crypto markets saw broad-based gains. According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin climbed to $61,000 before pulling back slightly to trade around $60,253—a nearly 4% gain over 24 hours. Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Solana followed suit with increases between 2% and 4%.
Altcoins also participated in the rally. Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap, most posted gains. Dymension (DYM) led the pack with a 24.1% surge, followed by Immutable (IMX) and Celestia (TIA), both up over 15%. On the flip side, Trust Wallet Token (TWT) dropped 12.5%, Helium (HNT) fell 5.3%, and Theta Network (THETA) declined 1.7%.
The total crypto market capitalization now stands at $2.08 trillion, with Bitcoin holding a dominant 57.1% share—a sign of strong investor confidence in the leading digital asset during times of uncertainty.
Traditional markets were mixed: the Nasdaq rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 closed flat, and the Dow Jones dipped 0.12%. This divergence highlights growing interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin as investors seek hedges against inflation and potential liquidity shifts.
Fed Rate Cut in Focus: What It Means for Crypto
All eyes are on the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, there's a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point cut and a 37% chance of a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction.
Historically, rate cuts signal looser monetary policy, which tends to boost risk-on assets—including cryptocurrencies. Lower rates reduce the yield advantage of holding cash or bonds, prompting investors to seek higher returns in growth-oriented markets.
Steven Lubka, Head of Swan Private at Swan Bitcoin, believes Q4 2025 will be favorable for crypto regardless of the cut size. In a recent report, he noted:
"A 50-basis-point cut could push Bitcoin higher—but if it's seen as a panic move by the Fed, that sentiment might offset gains. A 25-basis-point cut brings more uncertainty, while no cut at all could trigger short-term selling pressure."
Lubka remains optimistic long-term, citing improving liquidity conditions and an expected $16 billion payout from the FTX bankruptcy estate—an influx of capital that could fuel asset repurchases across crypto markets.
Technical Outlook: Bullish Patterns Emerge
Beyond macro factors, technical analysis reveals growing momentum behind Bitcoin’s price action.
TradingView analyst TradingShot highlighted a significant breakout above the 1D MA50 (blue trendline) and a minor breach of the upper boundary of a multi-week triangle pattern formed by lower highs since July. The fact that Bitcoin rebounded twice within one month from the 1W MA50 (red trendline) suggests strong buying pressure.
“If the daily candle closes above the previous lower high resistance,” TradingShot wrote, “we’ll have a strong bullish confirmation signal that could last through year-end.”
This setup mirrors the upward channel seen in early 2024—a period marked by institutional inflows and ETF approvals. Analysts believe a similar pattern could unfold: testing six-month resistance before a technical pullback around U.S. election time, followed by a renewed rally into 2025.
The ultimate target? The 2.0 Fibonacci extension level at $90,000—a psychologically significant milestone that aligns with growing adoption and limited supply dynamics.
Independent analyst Jelle reinforced this view in an X post on September 17, stating that Bitcoin’s local structure has turned bullish after closing above its prior September highs and establishing higher lows. The recent peak at $60,670 (September 13) surpassed the earlier high of $59,830 (September 3), indicating strength.
From a 12-hour chart perspective, Jelle sees a clear path toward breaking $65,000—and eventually setting new all-time highs.
Why $90,000 Is Within Reach
Several fundamental and structural drivers support the case for higher prices:
- Halving aftermath: The April 2024 Bitcoin halving reduced new supply issuance by 50%, historically preceding major bull runs.
- Institutional adoption: Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract steady inflows, locking up supply and boosting legitimacy.
- Global liquidity trends: Anticipated rate cuts and potential quantitative easing could flood markets with cheap capital.
- Geopolitical hedging demand: Rising global tensions and currency devaluations are increasing demand for decentralized stores of value.
Together, these forces create a fertile environment for sustained appreciation.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is the Fed rate decision important for Bitcoin?
A: Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. They also increase liquidity in financial systems, often pushing investors into higher-risk, higher-return assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Q: What does a breakout above $61,000 mean technically?
A: Breaking above key moving averages and long-term consolidation patterns signals strong buyer conviction. It often precedes extended rallies—especially when confirmed by volume and follow-through closes.
Q: Is $90,000 a realistic target for Bitcoin?
A: While no price target is guaranteed, $90,000 aligns with Fibonacci extensions, historical post-halving performance, and projected institutional demand. Past cycles suggest similar or greater gains are possible.
Q: How might FTX repayments affect the market?
A: The estimated $16 billion in creditor repayments could inject substantial liquidity into investors’ hands—some of which may flow back into crypto assets like Bitcoin, supporting price growth.
Q: What risks could derail Bitcoin’s rally?
A: Unexpected hawkish Fed policy, regulatory crackdowns, or macroeconomic shocks (e.g., recession or inflation resurgence) could trigger volatility or corrections.
Q: Should I invest based on these predictions?
A: This article does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct independent research and assess your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
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Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s recent surge to $61,000 amid expectations of a Fed rate cut underscores its evolving role as a macro-sensitive asset. With technical patterns aligning with favorable liquidity conditions and structural tailwinds from halving effects and institutional adoption, the path toward $90,000 appears increasingly plausible.
While short-term volatility remains inevitable—especially around central bank decisions—the broader trend points upward. As markets digest the FOMC outcome and look ahead to election-driven macro shifts, Bitcoin stands ready to capitalize on changing financial landscapes.
For investors and observers alike, the coming months may prove pivotal in shaping the next chapter of digital asset evolution.
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