Bitcoin steadied near $106,000 on Wednesday, July 2, following a record monthly close in June, as traders digested market volatility and awaited key economic data. Despite a minor pullback, on-chain metrics suggest long-term holders remain confident, while broader crypto sentiment wavered amid softness in U.S. tech stocks and renewed political tension between Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
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Bitcoin Shows Resilience After Record Month
Bitcoin closed June at approximately $107,200—its highest monthly closing price ever—before dipping slightly to trade around $106,000 during Asian hours. The 1% decline on Tuesday was largely attributed to profit-taking, a natural response after such a strong performance. However, unlike previous rallies marked by panic selling, this correction has been orderly.
According to Glassnode, the number of bitcoins held by long-term investors remains stable, with roughly 14.7 million BTC untouched across wallets. This signals strong conviction and reduced sell pressure from early adopters. Additionally, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) hovers near breakeven levels, indicating that most coins moving on-chain were acquired recently and at current price levels—further evidence of tactical trading rather than mass liquidation.
The "liveliness" metric, which tracks how frequently older coins move, continues to decline. This reinforces the idea that "old money" is staying put, allowing short-term traders and leveraged positions to drive near-term volatility.
Institutional Demand Strengthens Market Structure
Recent inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs highlight growing institutional interest. QCP Capital reported a net inflow of $2.2 billion last week alone. Firms like Strategy and Metaplanet have continued accumulating BTC, signaling confidence in its long-term value proposition.
This sustained institutional participation has pushed Bitcoin’s realized market cap to $955 billion—a metric representing the total value of all coins based on their last movement price. A rising realized cap suggests that real capital, not just speculative leverage, is entering the ecosystem.
Moreover, funding rates across major perpetual futures markets have turned positive, reflecting increasing bullish sentiment among leveraged traders. While this adds upside momentum, it also increases the risk of a sharp unwind if prices fail to advance.
Altcoins Retreat Amid Broader Risk-Off Sentiment
While Bitcoin holds steady, altcoins faced heavier selling pressure. Ethereum (ETH) failed to break above the critical $2,522 resistance level and dropped nearly 4.5% within 24 hours. Sentiment was dampened by weakness in U.S. tech stocks—Tesla fell 5.4% amid escalating public tension between Trump and Musk—pulling down risk assets across the board.
Other major altcoins saw deeper corrections:
- Solana (SOL): Down nearly 6% despite earlier optimism around a potential SOL ETF
- Cardano (ADA): Fell 4.2%, struggling to reclaim key technical levels
- Avalanche (AVAX): Lost over 5%, mirroring broader market weakness
Although news of potential Solana ETF approvals sparked short-term enthusiasm, the broader risk-off environment led to profit-taking and consolidation.
Macroeconomic Forces Shape Crypto Outlook
The performance of traditional markets continues to influence digital assets. The Nasdaq Composite dipped about 0.6% as tech stocks retreated, reinforcing the correlation between crypto and high-growth equities.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a “patient” stance during a European Central Bank event, stating that the U.S. economy remains strong and there's no urgency for rate cuts. While he didn’t rule out a July rate cut, his tone lacked dovish clarity—leaving markets uncertain.
However, internal Fed dynamics show divergence: at least two policymakers have publicly supported a July cut. This growing debate could shift sentiment quickly depending on incoming data.
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Non-Farm Payrolls: The Next Catalyst
With U.S. Independence Day on July 4, the June non-farm payrolls report will be released early on Thursday. Economists expect 110,000 new jobs, down from May’s 139,000. This data point is critical—it could redefine expectations for the Fed’s next move.
- Weaker-than-expected print: Could boost hopes for a July rate cut, weakening the dollar and potentially lifting risk assets like Bitcoin.
- Stronger-than-expected result: May reinforce hawkish views, strengthen the U.S. dollar (DXY), and pressure crypto valuations.
Given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity expectations, the NFP report may serve as the catalyst needed to break the current consolidation range.
Market Outlook: Consolidation Before the Next Leg?
Despite short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin’s underlying health remains robust. The combination of:
- Stable long-term holdings
- Rising institutional adoption
- Controlled realized profits
suggests this rally is more sustainable than past cycles.
Yet, Glassnode warns that prolonged sideways movement may eventually force a breakout—either up or down—to release pent-up liquidity. The coexistence of strong conviction and rising leverage creates a fragile equilibrium.
If Bitcoin can reclaim $108,000 and sustain momentum into the NFP release, a retest of $110,000 becomes likely. Conversely, failure to hold $104,000 could trigger short-term bearish momentum.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Bitcoin not surging despite record ETF inflows?
A: While ETF inflows reflect strong institutional demand, short-term price action is also influenced by macro sentiment, profit-taking cycles, and technical resistance levels. Sustained upward movement often requires a catalyst—like favorable economic data or policy shifts.
Q: How do U.S. tech stocks affect cryptocurrency prices?
A: Tech stocks and cryptocurrencies often move together because both are considered risk-on assets. When investors pull back from growth equities due to rate concerns or geopolitical tensions, crypto typically follows.
Q: What does aSOPR near 1.0 indicate about market conditions?
A: An aSOPR close to 1.0 means most spent coins are being sold at break-even levels—neither at significant profit nor loss. This reflects market maturity and reduced speculative frenzy.
Q: Could a weak jobs report boost Bitcoin?
A: Yes. A softer non-farm payrolls number may increase expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting liquidity sentiment and weakening the dollar—both historically positive for Bitcoin.
Q: Is leverage in crypto markets currently dangerous?
A: Elevated leverage increases volatility risk. While positive funding rates show bullishness, they also make markets vulnerable to rapid liquidations during sudden price swings.
Q: What role do long-term holders play in market stability?
A: Long-term holders act as anchors during volatility. Their reluctance to sell reduces circulating supply and prevents panic-driven selloffs, contributing to healthier price discovery.
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Core Keywords:
- Bitcoin price analysis
- Non-farm payrolls impact
- Crypto market outlook 2025
- Bitcoin ETF inflows
- Long-term holder behavior
- Fed rate cut expectations
- Altcoin performance
- On-chain metrics
As the market stands at an inflection point, all eyes are on Friday’s employment data and central bank signals. For now, Bitcoin shows restraint—not fear—positioning itself for what could be its next decisive move.