Bitcoin ended June on a strong note, closing near $107,700 after rebounding from a brief dip below the $100,000 mark earlier in the month. As July 2025 begins, BTC is testing a crucial resistance zone between $108,000 and $110,000—a level that could determine whether the market enters a new bullish phase or settles into further consolidation. With technical indicators aligning favorably and momentum building, traders and investors alike are watching closely for signs of a potential breakout.
Market Structure and Technical Outlook
The monthly price structure for Bitcoin continues to reflect an upward bias, provided the $104,000–$106,000 range holds as support. This zone has proven resilient in recent weeks, acting as a demand area where buying pressure consistently emerges. Technically, the short-term trend has shifted bullish following multiple trendline breaks in June, reinforcing confidence among market participants.
Bitcoin has reclaimed key moving averages, including the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Notably, the 20-day EMA at $106,144 is now sloping upward—a strong signal of improving momentum. As long as BTC remains above this dynamic support level, the path of least resistance appears to be higher.
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Key Resistance: The $110,000 Order Block
A major obstacle lies just ahead—the red order block near $110,500. This zone has been tested multiple times without a decisive breakout, indicating strong sell-side interest. However, repeated rejections often precede eventual breakthroughs, especially when supported by volume and sustained buying pressure.
A clean close above $110,000 could trigger a rapid move toward $114,500, with potential extension to $125,000—aligning with Fibonacci extensions and prior pivot highs. Such a move would likely be fueled by liquidity sweeps and algorithmic trading activity targeting accumulated sell orders above current price levels.
Technical Indicators: Signals Pointing Upward
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI (14) is currently at 56.38 and gradually climbing, suggesting moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory (above 70). This leaves room for further upside in early July if buying pressure continues. An RSI push toward 65–70 could confirm strong momentum without indicating exhaustion.
MACD Confirms Bullish Shift
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has recently generated a bullish crossover—the histogram has turned positive for the first time in several sessions. This shift indicates that short-term momentum is now favoring buyers. If volume supports breakout attempts above $110,000, the MACD could sustain its upward trajectory, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
Bollinger Bands Signal Rising Volatility
Bollinger Bands are beginning to expand again, with Bitcoin approaching the upper band near $109,000. Band expansion typically signals increasing market volatility—a precursor to strong directional moves. If BTC sustains price action near or above the upper band, it may indicate the start of a volatility-driven rally.
Support and Liquidity Zones
From a Smart Money Concept (SMC) perspective, Bitcoin has reclaimed key bullish structures on the daily chart, including Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) zones. This suggests institutional accumulation may be underway.
However, notable liquidity gaps remain:
- A demand zone exists between $98,000 and $100,000—this area could act as a fallback if broader market conditions deteriorate.
- On the upside, sell-side liquidity is clustered between $112,000 and $115,000—making it a likely target for breakout moves designed to trigger stop-losses and liquidate short positions.
Price action around these zones will be critical in determining July’s trajectory.
👉 Learn how liquidity zones shape Bitcoin’s price movements.
What to Expect From Bitcoin in July 2025
Early in July, Bitcoin may consolidate within a range of $104,000 to $112,000 as the market absorbs recent gains and tests resistance strength. The zone between $108,700 and $110,000 contains a daily imbalance and weak high—both common targets for breakout strategies.
A successful push through this resistance could unlock fast-paced gains toward $114,500 or higher. Conversely, failure to break through may result in a false breakout scenario, trapping late buyers and prompting a pullback to the $103,000–$104,000 support range.
If that lower support breaks, the market could revisit the broader mid-term demand area at $98,000–$100,000—though such a move would likely require negative macroeconomic catalysts or broad risk-off sentiment across financial markets.
Can Bitcoin Reach $115,000 in July?
Reaching $115,000 is within reach—but not guaranteed. For this target to be achieved:
- BTC must close decisively above $110,000 on a daily basis.
- Volume must accompany the breakout to confirm institutional participation.
- Price needs to sustain above the upper Bollinger Band to signal momentum acceleration.
The $114,500–$115,000 range aligns with the R4 pivot point and previous swing highs—making it a natural profit-taking and resistance zone. A move beyond this level would open the door to $125,000, especially if macro tailwinds such as favorable regulatory developments or increased adoption emerge.
However, if price is rejected below $110,000 after testing resistance, Bitcoin could remain range-bound through July, delaying the next major leg higher until August.
FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin’s July 2025 Outlook
Q: What is the most important support level for Bitcoin in July 2025?
A: The $104,000–$106,000 zone is critical short-term support. As long as BTC holds above this range—especially the 20-day EMA at $106,144—the bullish structure remains intact.
Q: What triggers a bearish reversal in Bitcoin’s price?
A: A daily close below $103,000 would raise concerns about weakening momentum. A break below $98,000 would signal deeper correction potential and invalidate the current bullish bias.
Q: Is a move to $125,000 possible in July?
A: While technically feasible, a rally to $125,000 would require strong volume-backed breakout above $115,000 and positive macroeconomic catalysts. It’s more likely seen in late July or early August if momentum builds steadily.
Q: How do moving averages influence Bitcoin’s price action?
A: The alignment of EMAs—particularly the 20-day above the 50-day and 100-day—creates a "golden cross" effect that supports upward momentum. These levels also act as dynamic support during pullbacks.
Q: Why is the $112K–$115K zone significant?
A: This range contains concentrated sell-side liquidity—orders placed by traders expecting resistance. A breakout here often leads to accelerated price movement as algorithms target these liquidation zones.
Q: What role does volatility play in Bitcoin’s July outlook?
A: Expanding Bollinger Bands suggest rising volatility. In trending markets like Bitcoin’s current setup, increasing volatility often precedes strong directional moves—either up or down—depending on breakout confirmation.
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Final Thoughts: Bullish Bias With Breakout Potential
The Bitcoin price prediction for July 2025 leans decisively bullish, supported by favorable technical alignment:
- Upward-sloping EMAs
- Bullish MACD crossover
- Reclaiming of key structural levels
- Rising RSI without overbought conditions
- Expanding volatility via Bollinger Bands
The key battleground remains the $110,000 resistance. A confirmed breakout could ignite a swift rally toward $114,500 and potentially $125,000. Conversely, failure to overcome this zone may extend consolidation into August.
For traders and investors, monitoring volume during breakout attempts and respecting key support/resistance levels will be essential. While no prediction is certain in crypto markets, the current technical landscape offers a compelling case for continued upside in July—if bulls maintain control.
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