Bitcoin’s recent market turbulence has reignited debate among top analysts about the health and trajectory of the current bull cycle. One of the most influential voices in the space, PlanB—creator of the widely followed Stock-to-Flow model—has issued a nuanced update, suggesting that while on-chain data still supports a bull market narrative, the path ahead is uncertain. With Bitcoin failing to reach new all-time highs since January 2025 and undergoing a sharp correction to around $78,000, the market now stands at a pivotal crossroads.
On-Chain Data Still Signals Bull Market
Despite growing skepticism, PlanB emphasizes that key on-chain metrics continue to reflect strong fundamentals consistent with a bull market. These indicators—such as exchange outflows, long-term holder accumulation, and network security spending—suggest that institutional and retail investors are still accumulating rather than distributing.
“Some questions about the Bitcoin market cycle chart. It is still measuring ‘bull market’ (red) in on-chain data. But as I explain in today’s video, we are at a crossroads.”
This divergence between technical price action and underlying on-chain strength highlights the complexity of interpreting market cycles. While price has pulled back significantly from its peak near $102,000 in January, the behavior of long-term holders and miner dynamics remain bullish.
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A Crossroads: V-Shaped Recovery or Bear Market Entry?
PlanB acknowledges that Bitcoin’s current price action is atypical. Historically, bull markets have featured repeated all-time highs, especially in the months following a halving event. The fact that Bitcoin has not surpassed its January high—despite strong macro tailwinds and spot ETF inflows—has raised legitimate concerns.
“In bull markets, we can have multiple dips that are 20% or even 30% minus. However, it was still an unexpected dip. I expected more all-time highs after January’s all-time high and I expected February to be an all-time high as well, above $102,000. So we’re really at the crossroads right now.”
This uncertainty defines the current moment: will Bitcoin rebound sharply in a classic V-shaped recovery, or is this the beginning of a distribution phase leading into a bear market?
PlanB outlines two potential scenarios:
- Continuation of the Bull Market – A renewed surge in demand driven by macro liquidity, institutional adoption, and retail FOMO could propel Bitcoin to new highs above $120,000 by mid-2025.
- Entry into Distribution Phase – If price fails to break above resistance and volume dries up, smart money may begin offloading positions, marking the start of a bear cycle.
Historical Precedent Offers Hope
Despite the current hesitation, PlanB points to historical patterns for reassurance. In every previous halving cycle, Bitcoin has faced similar inflection points—moments when sentiment turned negative after a sharp correction—yet each time, the market ultimately chose the bullish path.
“Yes, it has been at this crossroads each and every halving cycle. In all cycles the market has chosen bull/FOMO from here, but we have had only four cycles, not really enough to say something statistically sound. Fingers crossed for this fifth cycle.”
With only five halving cycles in Bitcoin’s history, statistical sample size remains limited. However, the consistent pattern of post-correction rallies suggests resilience in the asset’s long-term price structure. The confluence of spot ETF approvals, global monetary easing trends, and increasing regulatory clarity may provide additional fuel for another leg up.
Current Market Conditions
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,377—a 6.5% decline over the past 24 hours. While volatility remains elevated, trading volume and open interest suggest sustained market participation. Derivatives markets show neutral-to-bullish sentiment, with funding rates stable and liquidations contained.
Key support levels are closely watched:
- Immediate support at $78,000 (recent low)
- Stronger floor near $72,000 (200-day moving average)
- Upside resistance at $102,000 (January high)
A decisive break above $90,000 could re-establish bullish momentum and trigger short-term speculative interest.
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Core Keywords and Market Sentiment
The evolving narrative around Bitcoin’s cycle stage centers on several core keywords that reflect investor focus:
- Bitcoin bull market
- On-chain data
- Market cycle
- V-shaped recovery
- Distribution phase
- Halving cycle
- All-time high
- Bear market
These terms are not only central to PlanB’s analysis but also align with what investors are actively searching for. Understanding their interplay helps decode whether current weakness is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market according to PlanB?
A: Yes, PlanB states that on-chain data continues to signal a bull market. However, he stresses that price action has created uncertainty, placing the market at a crossroads between continuation and reversal.
Q: What would confirm a V-shaped recovery in Bitcoin?
A: A sustained move above $90,000 followed by a breakout past $102,000 would strongly suggest renewed bullish momentum and potential for new all-time highs.
Q: Could this correction mark the start of a bear market?
A: It’s possible. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim key resistance levels and on-chain accumulation slows or reverses, it could indicate entry into a distribution phase leading to a bear market.
Q: How reliable is PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model today?
A: While the original S2F model gained fame for predicting past cycles, it has faced criticism for oversimplification. PlanB now incorporates broader on-chain metrics beyond S2F for more nuanced forecasts.
Q: What role do ETFs play in the current cycle?
A: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have introduced institutional capital at scale, altering traditional cycle dynamics. Their consistent inflows provide structural demand that may support higher price floors.
Q: When might Bitcoin reach a new all-time high?
A: If historical patterns hold and macro conditions remain favorable, many analysts—including PlanB—believe new highs are possible by Q3 2025.
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Final Thoughts: Uncertainty Breeds Opportunity
PlanB’s latest assessment underscores a critical truth: in mature markets, clarity often emerges only in hindsight. While the absence of new all-time highs is concerning, it does not invalidate the bull thesis—especially when backed by strong on-chain fundamentals.
Investors should remain vigilant, monitor key support and resistance levels, and pay close attention to on-chain behavior. Whether this correction marks a temporary pause or the end of a cycle, one thing remains clear: Bitcoin continues to evolve as an asset class, defying simple narratives and rewarding those who understand its deeper mechanics.
For traders and long-term holders alike, this crossroads isn’t just a moment of risk—it’s a potential gateway to significant opportunity.