Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is gaining momentum, rising 2% on Thursday following a 6.39% surge the previous day. The upward movement has formed a clear ascending channel pattern, reinforcing bullish sentiment as the price approaches the psychologically significant $500 level. On-chain metrics and derivatives data further support the bullish outlook, suggesting that the rally may have room to extend toward its 52-week high.
This article dives into key technical patterns, on-chain indicators like MVRV, and derivatives market signals to assess Bitcoin Cash’s near-term price trajectory. Whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term holder, understanding these dynamics can help inform your strategy in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
👉 Discover how market trends and on-chain insights can shape your next crypto move.
On-Chain Data Reveals Room for Bitcoin Cash Growth
One of the most telling indicators for Bitcoin Cash’s current position in the market cycle is the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio, analyzed by Santiment on a weekly timeframe. The MVRV ratio helps identify whether investors are, on average, in profit or loss — a crucial signal for potential trend reversals.
Currently, BCH’s MVRV ratio sits at 0.665, below the critical threshold of 0.729, which historically triggered profit-taking events in March and May 2024. This suggests that despite recent gains, the broader investor base has not yet reached peak profitability, leaving room for further upside before widespread selling pressure emerges.
If the MVRV ratio climbs beyond 0.729, it could approach the December 2024 peak of 1.01, indicating a substantial increase in unrealized profit across the network. Such a scenario would reflect growing confidence and sustained accumulation, potentially fueling a stronger rally.
This data implies that Bitcoin Cash is still in a healthy phase of recovery, with on-chain fundamentals supporting continued upward momentum rather than signaling overheating.
Derivatives Market Shows Rising Optimism
Supporting the bullish narrative, derivatives data reveals increasing optimism among traders. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin Cash’s open interest (OI) has surged by 7.85% over the past 24 hours, reaching $471.99 million. A rising OI indicates new capital entering the market, often associated with strong conviction in the current price direction.
Moreover, the open-interest-weighted funding rate has turned positive at +0.0014%, meaning long positions are paying shorts — a common occurrence when bullish sentiment dominates futures markets. Positive funding rates typically emerge during periods of sustained buying pressure, as traders leverage their positions to ride the uptrend.
This confluence of rising open interest and positive funding suggests that market participants are not only participating in the rally but are doing so with increasing leverage, reinforcing the likelihood of continued upward movement unless a sharp reversal occurs.
👉 See how derivatives trends can reveal hidden market sentiment shifts before they happen.
Technical Chart Pattern Hints at Breakout Potential
Bitcoin Cash has printed two consecutive green candles on the daily chart, with Thursday’s 2% gain adding to Wednesday’s strong performance. Price action shows BCH approaching its year-to-date high of $505, testing resistance near an ascending trendline formed by swing highs on May 10, May 23, and June 19.
The formation of a well-defined ascending channel — with support drawn from lows on April 16, May 5, May 30, and June 22 — suggests that the prevailing trend remains structurally bullish. Ascending channels often act as continuation patterns, especially when volume and momentum align.
BCH has already surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $490**, calculated from the 52-week low of $249 to the high of $640. A daily close above this level strengthens the case for further upside. The next major resistance lies at the **78.6% Fibonacci level near $556, which could serve as a realistic target if bullish momentum holds.
Additionally, technical indicators reinforce this outlook:
- The MACD has avoided a bearish crossover, signaling renewed bullish momentum.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64, indicating strong upward bias without entering overbought territory (typically above 70).
A sustained breakout above the upper trendline could accelerate buying interest, potentially pushing BCH toward its 52-week high and beyond.
However, failure to close above $490 could lead to a retest of the channel’s lower boundary near **$450**, where support from prior swing lows may hold.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the MVRV ratio and why does it matter for Bitcoin Cash?
A: The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio compares the current market cap of BCH to its realized cap (the value of coins at their acquisition cost). A ratio below 1 suggests most holders are not in profit, indicating room for growth before profit-taking pressures emerge.
Q: What does rising open interest mean for BCH?
A: Increasing open interest signals new money flowing into futures contracts. When paired with price gains, it confirms strong market participation and confidence in the ongoing trend.
Q: Is Bitcoin Cash likely to break above $500?
A: With technical indicators favoring bulls and on-chain data showing room for growth, a breakout above $500 is possible — especially if daily closes remain above $490 and volume supports the move.
Q: What happens if BCH fails to hold $490?
A: A rejection below $490 could trigger short-term profit-taking and test support near $450, the lower bound of the ascending channel. However, this zone has proven resilient in past pullbacks.
Q: How do Fibonacci levels influence BCH price targets?
A: Fibonacci retracement levels help identify potential resistance zones during recoveries. Breaking past 61.8% ($490) opens the path to 78.6% ($556), often acting as logical profit targets for traders.
Q: Can on-chain data predict price tops?
A: While not foolproof, metrics like MVRV have historically signaled overheated markets when thresholds are breached (e.g., 0.729). Monitoring such levels helps gauge when sentiment may shift from greedy to cautious.
Conclusion
Bitcoin Cash is displaying strong technical and on-chain signals pointing to continued upside potential. With MVRV data indicating room for growth before profit-taking intensifies, rising open interest reflecting growing trader confidence, and a clear ascending channel forming on the charts, BCH appears well-positioned for a run toward its 52-week high.
Core keywords naturally integrated throughout include: Bitcoin Cash price prediction, BCH, MVRV, on-chain data, open interest, ascending channel, Fibonacci retracement, and 52-week high.
While risks remain — particularly around key resistance tests and broader market sentiment — the current confluence of factors suggests that Bitcoin Cash could be entering a phase of accelerated price discovery in the coming weeks.