Bitcoin’s momentum continues to captivate investors and analysts alike as key on-chain metrics signal a market on the brink of euphoria. With Bitcoin’s price recently surpassing $94,000, attention has turned to the growing percentage of supply in profit—an indicator that now exceeds 85%, edging closer to the historic 90% threshold associated with peak market sentiment. Could this be the final stretch before Bitcoin breaks into six figures?
This article explores the latest developments in Bitcoin’s price trajectory, analyzes critical on-chain data, and evaluates whether the long-anticipated $100,000 milestone is within reach—or if resistance lies ahead.
Supply in Profit Nears Euphoric Territory
One of the most telling signs of market sentiment is the Bitcoin supply in profit metric. Currently, over 85% of all BTC in circulation is held at a profit, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. This figure is rapidly approaching the psychologically significant 90% level, which has historically marked the onset of euphoric market phases.
“Historically, when the supply in profit surpassed the 90% threshold, it consistently triggered euphoric phases, and we are now approaching that level.”
— @Darkfost_Coc
When such a large portion of the supply is profitable, it often reflects strong confidence among holders. However, it also increases the risk of widespread profit-taking. A pullback earlier this year briefly dropped the metric to around 75%, testing the resilience of long-term holders. The swift rebound to 85% suggests that conviction remains strong—especially among mid-to-long-term investors who are less likely to sell during minor corrections.
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Whales Accumulate Unrealized Gains
Large Bitcoin holders—commonly referred to as whales—are sitting on massive unrealized profits. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have seen their unrealized gains surge by nearly 38% since April, now totaling approximately $150 billion.
This accumulation of paper wealth is significant. Historically, when whale unrealized profits approach $200 billion, it has often preceded partial sell-offs that cool market momentum. While that level hasn’t been reached yet, the trend suggests whales are closely watching price action.
Despite their growing gains, there’s little evidence of mass selling—indicating that many large players remain confident in further upside. Their behavior could be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin sustains its rally or enters a consolidation phase.
Miners Sell Amid Price Surge
As Bitcoin’s price climbs, miners are taking advantage. Over the past 12 days, more than 943 BTC—worth roughly $850 million—has been sold by mining entities, according to analyst Ali Martinez.
This behavior is typical during price rallies. After enduring periods of low profitability or even losses during bear markets, miners often offload reserves to cover operational costs or lock in profits. The current sell-off suggests a cautious approach as the price nears the psychologically critical $100,000 mark.
While miner selling can create short-term downward pressure, it doesn’t necessarily signal a top. Instead, it reflects a natural rebalancing of supply after prolonged accumulation.
Demand Momentum Still Negative
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive weekly gains—adding over $130 billion to its market cap and rising nearly 7.5%—a deeper look reveals underlying fragility.
The 30-day demand momentum remains firmly in negative territory, currently at -483,860 BTC, with the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) around -310,700 BTC. This means more Bitcoin is being sold than absorbed by buyers, indicating weak short-term demand.
This pattern is common in late-stage bull markets or during consolidation phases. For Bitcoin to sustain upward momentum, demand must shift into positive territory—requiring strong institutional or retail inflows.
Until then, resistance levels may cap gains, especially if profit-taking intensifies among short-term holders.
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Technical Outlook: Can Bitcoin Break $100K?
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading just below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, a technical indicator that often signals volatility expansion upon breakout.
A decisive move above this band could ignite a parabolic surge toward **$100,000**. However, failure to maintain momentum above the middle band—the **20-day SMA**—could trigger a pullback toward support levels near $88,000–$90,000.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at around 67, approaching overbought conditions (typically 70+). While not yet in extreme territory, a further rise could prompt short-term corrections. That said, sustained RSI above 60 is generally considered bullish in strong trending markets.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What does "supply in profit" mean?
Supply in profit refers to the percentage of Bitcoin that is currently held at a cost basis lower than the current market price—meaning those holders are sitting on unrealized gains. A high percentage suggests widespread profitability and bullish sentiment.
Why is the 90% supply-in-profit level important?
Historically, when this metric crosses 90%, it has coincided with euphoric market phases—often preceding major price peaks or sharp corrections due to profit-taking.
Are whales selling their Bitcoin?
Currently, whales are not showing signs of mass selling. Their unrealized profits have grown to $150 billion, but holdings remain stable. Significant sell-offs typically begin near $200 billion in unrealized gains.
What is causing negative demand momentum?
Negative demand momentum occurs when more BTC is being sold than bought over a given period. It suggests weak short-term buying pressure, often seen before consolidation or correction phases.
Could Bitcoin still reach $100,000?
Yes—technically and sentiment-wise, $100K remains within reach. A breakout above Bollinger Bands, combined with improving demand momentum and sustained whale accumulation, could propel BTC toward this milestone.
How do miner sales impact the market?
Miner sales increase circulating supply and can create short-term selling pressure. However, they are usually limited in volume and part of normal operational behavior—not necessarily a bearish signal.
Final Thoughts: Bullish Potential Meets Caution
Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. On one hand, powerful on-chain signals—like rising supply in profit and whale accumulation—point to strong underlying demand and growing confidence. On the other hand, weak short-term demand momentum and increased miner selling suggest caution as the market approaches psychological resistance.
The path to $100,000 remains open—but it may require a pause or pullback before resuming upward thrust. Investors should watch key metrics like supply in profit, whale behavior, and demand momentum for early clues of the next major move.
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