Binance Launchpad has recently faced criticism for underwhelming project launches, yet it continues to play a vital role in the crypto ecosystem. Despite mixed sentiment, the platform still offers tangible value—especially for long-term BNB holders. By analyzing historical data from 2021 onward, we can objectively assess Launchpad's performance, understand why recent launches feel less exciting, and evaluate the true yield of holding BNB for participation in token sales.
This article dives deep into metrics, compares returns against ETH staking, and reveals whether BNB remains a high-conviction asset in both bear and bull markets.
Understanding Key Performance Metrics
Before evaluating results, it's essential to define the core indicators used in this analysis:
- First-Day Return: The price increase of a token on its first full day post-launch (UTC+0:00) compared to its IDO price.
- All-Time High Return: Maximum price appreciation from IDO to peak.
- BNB-Based First-Day ROI: How many BNB you receive by selling your allocated tokens on day one (per 1 BNB spent).
- BNB-Based All-Time High ROI: Total BNB gained if tokens were sold at their historical peak.
These metrics allow us to measure not just dollar-denominated gains but also the opportunity cost of using BNB for Launchpad participation—critical for assessing long-term holding value.
Launchpad Performance: A Data-Driven Evaluation
Since 2021, Binance Launchpad has hosted numerous projects across varying market conditions. Aggregating all launches, the median first-day return is 12.6x, with an all-time high return of 25.7x. In BNB terms, this translates to:
- Median BNB first-day return: 0.015 BNB
- Median BNB all-time high return: 0.031 BNB
In simpler terms: for every 1 BNB used in a launchpool allocation, participants historically earned back an additional 0.015 BNB on day one—small, but not insignificant when compounded over time.
However, the most revealing insight comes from recent launches—specifically those following HOOK (including EDU and others). These bear-market entries have outperformed historical averages:
| Metric | Recent Projects (Post-HOOK) | Historical Median | Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-Day Return | 24.4x | 12.6x | 1.9x |
| All-Time High Return | ~36x | 25.7x | 1.4x |
| BNB First-Day ROI | ~0.023 | 0.015 | 1.5x |
| BNB All-Time High ROI | ~0.04 | 0.031 | 1.3x |
This suggests that bear-market Launchpad projects have been more profitable than their bull-market predecessors—a counterintuitive but data-backed conclusion.
Moreover, recent policies have stabilized returns for arbitrageurs and leveraged participants. The last three launches delivered consistent BNB-based first-day ROIs around 2%, enabling predictable strategies such as:
- Spot-long/futures-short hedging
- Borrowing BNB via Venus protocol to amplify allocations
With stable rulesets and reduced variance, sophisticated users now enjoy more reliable yield expectations—a significant upgrade from earlier unpredictable swings.
Why Does It Feel Less Exciting Now?
Despite solid median returns, community sentiment remains lukewarm. The answer lies not in averages—but in outliers.
In 2021–2022, two projects stood out dramatically:
- SFP: Achieved a BNB-based all-time high ROI of 1.56 BNB (yes, over 5x return on BNB spent)
- GMT: Peaked at 0.46 BNB per 1 BNB invested
These were not just strong performers—they were generational opportunities. A single successful allocation could fund dozens of future entries.
Compare that to today’s leaders: even top-tier recent projects cap out around 0.04–0.05 BNB ROI—solid, but psychologically far less thrilling.
“One SFP equals ten average Launchpad wins.”
— Crypto veteran reflecting on peak bull market momentum
Additionally, these mega-winners emerged roughly one year apart (SFP → GMT), creating a rhythm of anticipation. It’s now been over a year since GMT without a comparable breakout—fueling frustration.
Interestingly, neither SFP nor GMT had explosive first-day moves (~12x each), similar to Hook or EDU. Their magic came from sustained post-launch momentum driven by Ponzi-like growth models (e.g., gaming loops, referral incentives), which are harder to replicate in today’s risk-aware bear market.
Thus, while current projects are fundamentally healthier, they lack the viral hooks that created legendary returns—and legendary memories.
BNB Long-Term Holding Yield vs ETH Staking
Now let’s shift focus: what does it really mean to hold BNB long-term?
We can benchmark BNB’s Launchpad yield against ETH staking, a widely accepted standard for passive income in crypto.
Historical Comparison (2021 – Present)
Over approximately 2.5 years:
- BNB Launchpad only (first-day sell): Cumulative return of 36% in BNB terms, equating to ~14% annualized
- BNB Launchpad + Launchpool rewards: Total return rises to 52%, or ~21% annualized
Meanwhile, ETH staking during the same period yielded roughly 9–10% APR pre-Merge, and about 6% post-Merge (after accounting for issuance cuts and MEV).
👉 See how elite traders combine staking with launchpad participation for compounded yields.
Even more telling: over the past year (bear market conditions):
- BNB Launchpad annualized return ≈ 9.5%
- ETH staking APR ≈ 6%
That means BNB holders earned 58% more than ETH stakers—despite broader market downturns.
Future Outlook: Bull Market Potential
If a bull market returns:
- ETH staking may see APR rise due to increased MEV revenue
- But rising validator count (current ~300K) could dilute individual yields—especially as ETH adoption grows and more users stake
Conversely, BNB Launchpad activity remains stable, with fundraising amounts hovering around $10M per project regardless of market cycle. Combined with higher upside potential from viral hits, this gives BNB greater yield elasticity.
Furthermore, both assets are deflationary:
- BNB burns quarterly based on trading volume
- ETH has negative net issuance post-Merge
But BNB’s burn rate is significantly faster, especially during high-volume periods—a structural advantage reflected in its price resilience.
While direct price comparisons (BNB/ETH ratio) have been range-bound since 2021, the underlying yield differential makes a strong case for holding BNB beyond speculation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Binance Launchpad still profitable in the bear market?
Yes. Recent projects have delivered first-day returns nearly double the historical median. While no breakout stars like SFP have emerged, consistent performance makes Launchpad a viable yield source even in downturns.
Q: How does holding BNB compare to staking ETH?
Holding BNB for Launchpad access has historically provided 1.5x to 2x higher annualized returns than ETH staking—especially when including Launchpool rewards. In bear markets, BNB still outperforms by over 50%.
Q: Can I use leverage to boost Launchpad returns?
Yes, platforms like Venus allow borrowing BNB against collateral to increase participation. With stable recent ROI (~2%), this strategy offers predictable risk/reward—if managed carefully.
Q: Why haven’t there been any SFP-like winners lately?
High-multiplier projects often rely on speculative mechanics (e.g., play-to-earn loops) that thrive in bull markets. Current bearish sentiment favors sustainable models over hype-driven ones, delaying the next breakout.
Q: Does BNB’s burn mechanism add real value?
Absolutely. Quarterly burns reduce supply permanently, increasing scarcity. During high-trading periods, burn rates accelerate—creating positive feedback between usage and value accrual.
Q: Should I prioritize BNB or ETH for long-term passive income?
It depends on your strategy. ETH offers stability and network security; BNB provides higher-yield opportunities via Launchpad and ecosystem incentives. For active participants, BNB currently offers superior upside.
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Final Thoughts
Binance Launchpad may no longer deliver the jaw-dropping headlines of 2021–2022, but its underlying economics remain strong. Recent projects have outperformed historical averages, offering stable and predictable returns—ideal for arbitrage and leveraged strategies.
The absence of another SFP or GMT explains much of the negative sentiment, but outlier fatigue doesn’t negate solid fundamentals. When benchmarked against ETH staking—a gold standard for passive income—long-term BNB holding delivers significantly higher yields, both in bull and bear markets.
Looking ahead, the real differentiator will be ecosystem utility. While ETH strengthens through L2 innovation, BNB Chain must continue expanding its developer base and user adoption to sustain momentum.
For now, one thing is clear: BNB isn’t just a gateway token—it’s a yield engine.
Whether you’re a passive holder or an active participant, understanding the full spectrum of BNB’s value—from burns to launchpads—is key to maximizing long-term returns in the evolving crypto landscape.