The crypto market has endured a grueling six-month downturn since March, testing the resolve of even the most seasoned investors. Whispers of surrender echoed across social media, with some longtime figures suggesting a long 18-month bear market ahead. Yet, beneath the surface pessimism, a quiet reversal is taking shape. Signs are mounting that the tide may be turning—bullish momentum is building, and smart money is already positioning itself.
While the market hasn’t fully erupted into euphoria, it’s also far from the depths of despair. In fact, history often repeats: uncertainty and doubt tend to cluster around market bottoms. Just as in 2023, when a dormant mid-year market ignited in October, we’re seeing familiar patterns emerge in late 2025. By the end of September, prices began surging, and October delivered another strong rally—BTC rebounded from a $52,000 low to over $68,000, nearing its all-time high. Many previously neglected altcoins have doubled or tripled from their lows.
But is this just a bear market bounce—or is a full-blown bull run truly on the horizon?
Let’s examine five key on-chain and market data indicators that suggest the answer might be yes.
📈 Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows Signal Strong Institutional Demand
One of the most reliable barometers of institutional appetite is Bitcoin spot ETF inflow data. Unlike retail trading, ETF purchases reflect real capital deployment—investors paying premiums for trusted custodians to hold BTC on their behalf.
Since their U.S. launch, Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated a staggering $20.66 billion in net inflows. More telling is the recent trend: in October alone, there were 7 days of net inflows versus just 6 days of outflows—but the inflow amounts dwarfed outflows in magnitude.
- October 14: +$555 million
- October 15: +$370 million
- October 16 & 17: over $450 million each day
Even more surprising, Ethereum spot ETFs, which initially faced skepticism, saw a rare single-day inflow of $48.4 million in October. This signals growing confidence beyond just Bitcoin.
👉 Discover how institutional capital flows are shaping the next bull cycle.
The imbalance between large inflows and small outflows reveals a powerful truth: smart money is accumulating, not retreating.
💰 Stablecoin Supply Nears All-Time High
Stablecoin market cap is a proxy for "dry powder"—the amount of capital waiting on the sidelines to enter crypto markets. When stablecoin supply rises, it often precedes major rallies.
In mid-2022, stablecoins peaked at $186.3 billion** before retreating during prolonged bearish sentiment. Since then, supply has steadily climbed back. As of late 2025, it stands at **$172.3 billion—just 7.5% below the all-time high.
This resurgence indicates that users are moving fiat into stablecoins—likely preparing to deploy capital into BTC, ETH, or altcoins. Historically, such buildup has preceded major price movements.
When stablecoins stop circulating and start piling up in wallets, it’s often a sign that traders are waiting for the next breakout.
💡 Over 95% of Bitcoin Holders Are Now Profitable
The Bitcoin Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio measures how many BTC holders are in profit versus loss. Color-coded from red (profit) to blue (loss), this metric visually maps market sentiment.
For months, the chart hovered in light blue—indicating widespread losses and capitulation. Now, it’s climbed into the yellow-profit zone, with 95% of Bitcoin addresses in the green, according to IntoTheBlock.
This shift is significant:
- When most holders are losing money, selling pressure is high.
- When most are profitable, confidence returns—but so does risk of profit-taking.
While this level can signal overbought conditions, it also reflects strong market recovery and renewed investor confidence after a prolonged drawdown.
👉 See how real-time on-chain data can help you time market cycles.
🐳 Long-Term Holders Are Accumulating Aggressively
The Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply metric tracks BTC held by addresses that haven’t moved coins in 155 days or more. These holders typically represent strategic investors who buy and hold through volatility.
Historically, long-term supply dips during bull peaks (as holders cash out) and grows during corrections (as they accumulate cheaply). In July 2025, this metric began rising sharply—indicating a new phase of accumulation.
Even more telling: new whale addresses are hoarding BTC at an unprecedented rate. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju noted this behavior is unlike anything seen before—and crucially, not directly tied to ETF inflows. This suggests organic demand from private whales, not just institutional funds.
These "smart money" players are betting big on higher prices ahead.
📊 Open Interest Hits Record High
Bitcoin open interest (OI) measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts across all exchanges. It reflects leveraged market sentiment.
As of late 2025, total Bitcoin open interest surpassed **$39.7 billion**, breaking the previous high of $38 billion set earlier in the year. This record level indicates:
- Growing trader confidence
- Increased use of leverage
- Strong expectations for further upside
However, high OI also brings risk. When sentiment becomes too one-sided, sharp corrections can occur as exchanges liquidate over-leveraged positions.
Still, the fact that OI has remained elevated throughout 2025—unlike past volatile spikes—suggests sustained bullish conviction, not just short-term speculation.
🔍 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Are we already in a bull market?
A: While not yet in full euphoria, key indicators—ETF inflows, stablecoin supply, and holder profitability—suggest we’re transitioning from bear to bull territory. A sustained break above $70,000 for BTC would confirm it.
Q: Can altcoins rally without Bitcoin leading?
A: Historically, altseason follows Bitcoin dominance stabilization or decline after BTC peaks. With BTC still leading, a broad altcoin surge may wait—but select projects could outperform early.
Q: What risks could derail the bull run?
A: Unexpected macro events (e.g., delayed rate cuts), regulatory crackdowns, or extreme leverage-triggered liquidations could cause sharp pullbacks. However, current on-chain trends suggest resilience.
Q: How can I spot smart money moves?
A: Watch long-term holder supply, whale accumulation patterns, and spot ETF flows. These often lead retail sentiment by weeks or months.
Q: Is it too late to invest?
A: Market cycles don’t end overnight. Even after strong rallies, bull markets often see multiple 20–30% corrections before final peaks. Dollar-cost averaging remains a prudent strategy.
🌐 The Bigger Picture: Macro Tailwinds Ahead
Beyond on-chain data, macroeconomic conditions are aligning favorably. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in November and December 2025, injecting liquidity into risk assets. As traditional markets loosen monetary policy, capital naturally seeks higher returns—in sectors like crypto.
Combined with strong institutional adoption, resilient network fundamentals, and growing retail participation, the stage is set for a powerful rally.
Final Thoughts
As the saying goes: “Markets are born in despair, grow in skepticism, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria.”
We’re no longer in despair. Skepticism remains—but so does evidence of recovery. The five data points outlined here—ETF inflows, stablecoin supply, unrealized profit ratio, long-term holder behavior, and open interest—collectively paint a picture of a market regaining strength.
👉 Stay ahead of the cycle with real-time market insights and tools.
While caution is wise, dismissing this momentum as noise risks missing what could be the early phase of the next major bull run.
The question isn’t just “Is a bull run coming?”—it might already be here.