The XRP price continues to face headwinds despite growing optimism around regulatory developments and technological advancements. Currently trading at $2.19, XRP saw a nearly 2% decline on Tuesday, remaining approximately 35% below its all-time high of $3.40. The broader cryptocurrency market’s bearish sentiment has weighed heavily on investor confidence, contributing to reduced interest in cross-border payment tokens like XRP.
This waning enthusiasm is reflected in declining futures open interest, which has dropped from $7.76 billion on January 17 to $4.38 billion as of recent data. Lower open interest typically signals reduced speculative activity and weaker market participation—key concerns for traders monitoring momentum.
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XRP Spot ETF Approval Odds Raised to 95%
In a significant development, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have increased the likelihood of an XRP spot ETF approval to 95%, expecting a final decision by the end of 2025. This marks a pivotal shift in market perception, positioning XRP as a potential candidate for mainstream financial integration.
Multiple asset management firms—including Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary Capital, 21Shares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton—have filed proposals that are now under SEC review, each assigned the same high probability of approval. A spot ETF would allow traditional investors to gain exposure to XRP without directly holding the cryptocurrency, significantly broadening its accessibility.
While the price has not yet reacted strongly to this news, such regulatory clarity could lay the foundation for long-term institutional inflows. ETF approvals often act as catalysts for renewed buying pressure, especially when combined with strong underlying fundamentals.
XRPL EVM Sidechain Goes Live on Mainnet
Ripple has officially launched the XRPL EVM Sidechain on its mainnet following years of collaboration with Persyst and other ecosystem partners. This milestone enables Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility within the XRP Ledger (XRPL), opening the door for developers to build, port, and deploy cross-chain and EVM-native decentralized applications (dApps).
The integration enhances XRPL's utility in Web3 finance by supporting critical use cases such as stablecoins, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and scalable cross-border payments—all of which depend on fast, secure, and cost-efficient infrastructure.
David Schwartz, Ripple’s CTO and co-founder, emphasized the strategic value:
“The XRPL EVM sidechain provides developers with a flexible environment to deploy EVM-based applications while maintaining connectivity to XRPL’s efficiency.”
He added that the upgrade expands ecosystem capabilities without altering the core features that make XRPL reliable.
This advancement positions XRP not just as a payments token but as a foundational layer for next-generation financial applications.
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Technical Outlook: Can XRP Reverse Its Downtrend?
From a technical perspective, XRP remains under pressure. The price is approaching a key support level at $2.06—a level tested earlier in the week. A break below $2.18, which aligns with the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), could confirm further downside momentum.
Historically, geopolitical tensions contributed to a dip down to $1.90 on June 21. Should selling pressure intensify, this level may be retested. However, a deeper drop below $1.90—just under the 100-week EMA—is considered less likely due to improving market structure signals.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) currently sits at 40 and trending upward toward the neutral midpoint of 50. This suggests increasing buying pressure and improving demand dynamics, potentially paving the way for a reversal if macro conditions stabilize.
Traders should monitor these key levels:
- Support: $2.18 (50-day EMA), $2.06 (recent low), $1.90 (psychological and historical support)
- Resistance: $2.34 (previous monthly high), $2.65 (May peak)
A sustained move above $2.34 could signal renewed bullish momentum, while failure to hold $2.18 might invite additional selling.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: What is a spot ETF, and why does it matter for XRP?
A: A spot ETF tracks the real-time price of an asset—in this case, XRP—without using derivatives. Approval would allow traditional investors to access XRP through regulated stock exchanges, boosting liquidity and institutional adoption.
Q: How does the XRPL EVM sidechain benefit developers?
A: It allows Ethereum-compatible dApps to run on XRPL with minimal changes, leveraging XRPL’s speed and low transaction costs while accessing EVM’s vast developer tools and smart contract ecosystem.
Q: Is XRP supply limited?
A: Yes. The maximum supply of XRP is capped at 100 billion tokens. While not all are in circulation, no new tokens can be created beyond this limit, making it a deflationary asset over time if usage increases.
Q: What factors influence XRP price movements?
A: Key drivers include regulatory developments (like ETF decisions), technological upgrades (such as the EVM sidechain), market sentiment, macroeconomic trends, and adoption in cross-border payments.
Q: Can XRP recover its all-time high?
A: Long-term recovery depends on sustained adoption, favorable regulation, and integration into global financial systems. With strong fundamentals and growing infrastructure support, many analysts believe it's possible over time.
Q: How does open interest affect XRP trading?
A: Declining open interest suggests reduced leverage and speculative activity. When combined with falling prices, it often indicates weakening momentum—though it can also precede consolidation before a breakout.
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Final Thoughts
Despite current price weakness, XRP stands at a critical inflection point driven by two powerful catalysts: the near-certain prospect of a spot ETF approval and the successful deployment of the XRPL EVM sidechain. These developments enhance both its investment appeal and technological relevance.
While short-term volatility persists amid broader market uncertainty, the combination of institutional interest and expanding developer capabilities suggests that XRP may be laying the groundwork for a sustainable recovery. Investors should watch regulatory timelines closely and assess how quickly new applications emerge on the EVM sidechain.
As blockchain technology continues to evolve and digital assets gain wider acceptance, XRP's role in bridging traditional finance with decentralized innovation becomes increasingly compelling.
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