XRP ETF Approval Potential: What Are the Chances in 2025?

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The buzz around a potential XRP ETF has reached a fever pitch in 2025. With the crypto landscape rapidly evolving and regulatory winds shifting, many investors are asking: Is this finally the year XRP gets its long-awaited Exchange-Traded Fund approval in the United States?

An ETF, or Exchange-Traded Fund, is a financial product that trades on traditional stock exchanges like the NYSE or NASDAQ. It allows investors to gain exposure to an underlying asset—such as Bitcoin, gold, or in this case, XRP—without needing to buy or store the asset directly. This convenience opens the door for mainstream adoption, bringing crypto investing within reach of everyday traders and institutional portfolios alike.

With Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs already approved, the spotlight has firmly turned to XRP as the next logical candidate. Analysts and market watchers now estimate the approval odds at 75–85% by the end of 2025. But what’s driving this optimism? Let’s break it down.

The Legal Hurdle: How Ripple’s Victory Cleared the Path

For years, XRP’s biggest obstacle was regulatory uncertainty. In December 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, alleging that XRP was an unregistered security. This cast a long shadow over the token’s legitimacy and deterred institutional investment.

That changed dramatically in July 2023, when a federal judge ruled that XRP sold on public exchanges does not qualify as a security. While institutional sales were still under scrutiny, this landmark decision was a massive win for XRP’s classification as a commodity-like asset.

The final nail in the legal coffin came in March 2025, when the SEC officially dropped its appeal, slashed Ripple’s penalty from $125 million to $50 million, and closed the case. This closure removed the single largest regulatory overhang and signaled a new era of clarity.

👉 Discover how regulatory shifts are reshaping crypto investment opportunities in 2025.

A New Regulatory Climate: The SEC’s Crypto-Friendly Turn

The change in administration in 2025 brought a seismic shift in regulatory tone. Out went Gary Gensler, known for his enforcement-heavy approach, and in came Paul Atkins, a former SEC commissioner with a proven track record of supporting innovation.

Under Atkins’ leadership, the SEC adopted a more collaborative stance. It dropped lawsuits against major platforms like Coinbase and Kraken, signaling a pivot from punishment to partnership. More importantly, the agency fast-tracked approvals for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, setting a powerful precedent.

This new environment has created fertile ground for spot altcoin ETFs, including XRP. The message is clear: if an asset has legal clarity and strong investor demand, the SEC is increasingly willing to say yes.

Who’s Filing for an XRP ETF?

The institutional race is on. Since late 2024, major asset managers have submitted spot XRP ETF applications, demonstrating serious market interest:

These aren’t fringe players—they’re leaders in digital asset investment. Their filings include robust custody solutions (like Coinbase Custody) and surveillance-sharing agreements designed to meet SEC standards.

Even more telling? In April 2025, Teucrium launched a 2x leveraged XRP ETF (XXRP) on NYSE Arca—the first XRP-based ETF in the U.S. While leveraged products are typically introduced after spot versions, this reversal suggests the SEC isn’t blocking XRP products outright.

“$XXRP saw $5M in volume on Day One—very respectable… puts it in approx top 5% of new ETF launches.”
— Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF Analyst

Though no spot XRP ETF has been approved yet, the SEC has not rejected any filings either. Instead, it’s using the full review period—a sign of careful consideration, not dismissal.

Key decision dates loom:

These are statutory deadlines—the SEC must act by then.

Is the Lack of CME Futures a Dealbreaker?

One common argument against XRP ETF approval is the absence of CME-listed XRP futures. Historically, the SEC has preferred crypto assets with regulated futures markets (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) to help deter price manipulation.

But times are changing.

While XRP doesn’t yet have CME futures, today’s ETF filings come with strong safeguards:

Analysts now view the missing futures market as a minor hurdle, not a showstopper. With legal clarity and institutional backing, many believe the SEC will approve an XRP ETF regardless.

👉 See how leading institutions are preparing for the next wave of crypto ETFs.

What Do Experts and Markets Say?

The consensus among analysts and traders is growing louder:

Global Precedent: XRP ETFs Already Exist Abroad

The U.S. isn’t leading this charge.

These international products prove that XRP can function within regulated financial systems. They’ve operated smoothly for years, with no major issues.

This global momentum adds pressure on U.S. regulators. If American investors can access XRP through foreign markets, capital could flow overseas—putting U.S. financial leadership at risk.

What Happens If an XRP ETF Is Approved?

Approval would be transformative.

Historically, ETF approvals have preceded significant price movements (e.g., Bitcoin post-ETF). While nothing is guaranteed, many analysts expect a surge in adoption and price momentum if approval comes.

Beyond price, it would be a symbolic win for Ripple—validating XRP as a legitimate financial asset alongside gold, bonds, and Bitcoin.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Will an XRP ETF definitely be approved in 2025?

While nothing is guaranteed, the odds are favorable—most experts estimate a 75–85% chance of approval by year-end, given current legal clarity and regulatory trends.

Why does the lack of CME futures matter?

The SEC has historically preferred assets with regulated futures markets to monitor manipulation. However, strong custody and surveillance plans in current filings reduce this concern significantly.

Which companies have filed for an XRP ETF?

Major firms including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, WisdomTree, and 21Shares have all submitted applications for spot XRP ETFs.

Has any XRP ETF launched yet?

Not a spot ETF—but in April 2025, Teucrium launched XXRP, a 2x leveraged XRP ETF on NYSE Arca, signaling regulatory openness.

Can I invest in XRP through ETFs today?

Not in the U.S., but yes in Europe and Canada via physically backed ETPs offered by firms like CoinShares and WisdomTree.

What happens to XRP’s price if an ETF is approved?

Past precedent (e.g., Bitcoin) suggests potential for significant price appreciation due to increased institutional demand and broader market access.

The Bottom Line

The stars are aligning for an XRP ETF in 2025:

While challenges remain—like the lack of CME futures—the momentum is undeniable. With key decision dates approaching between June and October, all eyes are on the SEC.

Approval wouldn’t just boost XRP’s price—it would mark a pivotal moment in crypto’s journey into the mainstream financial system.

👉 Stay ahead of the next big crypto milestone—explore what’s next in digital asset investing.