The 2024 U.S. presidential election has ushered in a new era for digital assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) breaking past its previous all-time highs amid a wave of regulatory optimism. As market momentum accelerates, key on-chain metrics, investor sentiment, and macro-level trends point to a sustained bull run. According to VanEck’s latest research, Bitcoin could surge to $180,000 in this cycle—driven by favorable policy shifts, growing institutional adoption, and strong network fundamentals.
This projection aligns with historical patterns observed after the 2020 election, when BTC doubled by year-end and gained another 137% in 2021. Now, with a pro-crypto administration taking office, the conditions appear even more conducive for exponential growth.
Market Sentiment and Regulatory Tailwinds
Bitcoin’s 7-day moving average (7 DMA) recently reached $89,444**, marking a new record high. On election night—November 5—BTC surged nearly **9%**, briefly touching **$75,000, reinforcing the correlation between political outcomes and crypto performance. Historically, rising odds of a Trump victory have coincided with bullish price action.
The shift is more than speculative: it reflects a structural change in U.S. regulatory posture. President-elect Trump has pledged to end the SEC’s controversial “regulation by enforcement” approach and position America as the “crypto and Bitcoin capital of the world.” His incoming administration is already appointing crypto-friendly officials, increasing the likelihood of pro-innovation legislation.
Key policy developments expected include:
- Establishing a National Bitcoin Reserve
- Rewriting market structure rules under a revised FIT21 framework
- Allowing state-chartered banks to issue stablecoins without Federal Reserve approval
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These reforms could transform stablecoins into a strategic tool for extending dollar dominance globally—especially as emerging markets seek alternatives to traditional financial systems. By streamlining issuance, the U.S. can maintain its monetary influence while accelerating adoption in regions hungry for financial inclusion, inflation hedging, and access to decentralized finance (DeFi).
Additionally, the Securities Act Rule 15c3-1 (SAB 121) is expected to be repealed in early 2025—either by SEC action or congressional override—freeing banks to offer crypto custody services. If Gary Gensler remains at the SEC, a leadership change is likely, marking the end of an enforcement-heavy era.
Further catalysts include:
- Approval of Ethereum (ETH) staking ETFs
- SEC greenlighting Solana (SOL) ETFs with 19b-4 filings
- Physical creation and redemption of ETFs for improved tax efficiency and liquidity
With Trump acknowledging synergies between Bitcoin mining and AI in energy consumption, expect looser energy regulations—boosting nuclear and other baseload power sources. This could cement U.S. leadership across energy, AI, and blockchain innovation.
Bitcoin Dominance and Market Expansion
Bitcoin’s dominance—measured as its market cap share of the total crypto market—has risen 2 percentage points to 59%, the highest since March 2021. While this trend may peak soon, it underscores BTC’s role as the foundational asset in the current cycle.
A Harris victory might have strengthened Bitcoin’s status as a regulated commodity. But Trump’s broader pro-crypto cabinet is likely to stimulate investment across the entire ecosystem. As regulatory risks decline and prices climb, wealth effects will draw both native crypto capital and new institutional players into DeFi and altcoin projects.
On-Chain Indicators: Momentum vs. Overheating Risks
Perpetual Futures Funding Rates
High funding rates signal strong short-term bullishness. When 30-day moving average perpetual funding rates exceed 10%, historical data shows an average 17% return over the following 66 days.
Currently, we’re in a high-funding phase that began on November 12, lasting 80 days, followed by a brief pause and resurgence—totaling 168 days of elevated sentiment. This mirrors the 186-day stretch from late 2020 to mid-2021, during which Bitcoin gained 260%.
While high funding rates correlate with strong short-term returns (30–90 days), they often precede long-term underperformance. Data shows that purchases made during such periods tend to underperform after 180 days, with declining returns over 1–2 years. This pattern suggests extended high funding rates may signal market topping behavior.
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Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP)
RUP measures the proportion of Bitcoin’s market cap held in unrealized profit. A 30-day moving average RUP above 0.60–0.70 historically indicates overheating.
As of November 13, RUP stood at 0.54, but daily values have crossed 0.60 since November 11. When RUP reaches 0.70, it has consistently marked market peaks—triggering profit-taking and corrections.
For now, RUP remains in the optimal range (0.60–0.70) for strong medium-term gains. Investors should monitor this threshold closely: approaching 0.70 may warrant caution for long-term holders.
Retail Interest: Still Below Peak Levels
Google Trends data shows U.S. search interest for “cryptocurrency” is at just 34% of its May 2021 peak—slightly below the 37% seen in March 2024 when BTC tested prior highs.
This subdued retail engagement suggests the market hasn’t entered speculative frenzy mode. Historically, search peaks have preceded major corrections:
- May 2021 peak → ~55% drawdown within two months
- November 2021 peak → ~75% decline over 12 months
Low search volume today implies significant room for growth before reaching top-tier retail saturation.
Coinbase’s app store ranking reinforces this: it jumped from #412 on November 5 to #9 by November 14, reflecting renewed retail activity post-election. This surge has coincided with record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
Network Activity and On-Chain Health
Despite a 15% drop in daily transaction count (7 DMA: ~543k), activity remains in the 96th percentile of Bitcoin’s history. Lower volume but higher value per transaction indicates larger transfers—consistent with institutional movement.
Key metrics:
- Ordinals activity: +404% MoM—resurgence in NFT and meme coin speculation
- Total transfer volume: +118% MoM (7 DMA: ~$85B)
- Average fee: $3.58 (-5%), fee rate: ~0.0023%
- Average transaction size: ~$157,000
Profitability and Miner Behavior
- Profitable addresses: ~99% of BTC addresses are now in profit
- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): Increased to 0.61, entering the “Belief-Denial” phase—indicating rapid expansion between cycle extremes
Miner activity also reveals important signals:
- Mining difficulty: Rose from 92T to 102T—network security strengthens as miners upgrade hardware
- Daily miner revenue: Up 30% in USD terms, though BTC-denominated fees fell 30%
- Miner outflows to exchanges: Spiked to $181M on November 18 (50x 30-day average), pushing 7 DMA up 803%
While large miner sell-offs can signal topping behavior, this spike follows a period of low summer selling and likely reflects operational funding needs—not panic.
The MarketVector Digital Asset Public Equities Index (MVDAPP) rose 47% on a 30-day moving average, outperforming BTC. Companies like MicroStrategy and crypto miners benefit directly from price appreciation, while platforms like Coinbase gain from higher trading volumes and fee expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why does VanEck predict $180,000 for Bitcoin?
A: The $180K target is based on historical cycle patterns, current on-chain metrics (like RUP and funding rates), regulatory tailwinds, and institutional inflows. It represents roughly a 1,000% return from the cycle low—consistent with past bull markets.
Q: Are we near a market top?
A: While momentum is strong, indicators like RUP and funding rates suggest we’re approaching overheated territory. A RUP above 0.70 or sustained funding above 10% for over 180 days has historically preceded corrections.
Q: How do regulatory changes impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: Clearer rules reduce uncertainty, attract institutional capital, and enable financial products like staking ETFs. Pro-crypto policies boost confidence and lower barriers to entry for traditional investors.
Q: Is low retail search interest bullish?
A: Yes. Historically, retail frenzy coincides with market peaks. Current Google Trends data shows interest is below prior highs—suggesting room for further upside before saturation.
Q: What role do miners play in market cycles?
A: Miners are early indicators of sentiment. Large sell-offs can pressure prices, but periodic outflows are normal for covering costs. Sustained selling after accumulation phases may signal caution.
Q: Can Bitcoin maintain momentum into 2025?
A: Yes—pending no black swan events. With ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and macro tailwinds (like dollar reserve debates), Bitcoin is positioned for continued adoption through 2025.
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