Recent declines in Bitcoin’s price are more closely tied to weakness in broader risk assets—particularly U.S. equities—than to any inherent issues within the cryptocurrency market itself, according to Geoff Kendrick, a strategist at Standard Chartered. Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick maintains a bullish long-term outlook, projecting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
The latest price movements reflect a growing correlation between digital assets and traditional financial markets. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin rebounded from around $79,000 to $83,000, gaining nearly 5%, coinciding with positive macroeconomic developments such as Ukraine’s 30-day ceasefire announcement and the U.S. pausing retaliatory tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.
👉 Discover how global macro trends are shaping the next Bitcoin surge.
Why Bitcoin Is Falling: Risk-Off Sentiment Drives Sell-Off
Kendrick emphasizes that Bitcoin's recent pullback should not be interpreted as a sign of weakening fundamentals. Instead, it mirrors broader investor sentiment across global risk assets.
“Bitcoin’s pain is tied to equities—not because of internal problems with the crypto itself.”
This perspective aligns with observed market behavior: when tech stocks and other high-growth assets face pressure, Bitcoin often moves in tandem. The strategist notes that after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin has held up relatively well compared to major tech giants.
“After volatility adjustment, Tesla performed worst, Meta and Apple strongest—Bitcoin was in line with most others.”
This suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as part of the broader risk-on asset class, reacting to macroeconomic shifts rather than isolated crypto-specific events.
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Two Key Catalysts That Could Push Bitcoin to $200,000
Despite current headwinds, Kendrick identifies two primary catalysts that could drive Bitcoin higher in the coming months:
- Recovery in Risk Assets
- Institutional or Government Adoption of Bitcoin
1. Risk Asset Recovery Hinges on Federal Reserve Policy
The trajectory of risk assets—including both equities and cryptocurrencies—largely depends on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Kendrick points out that if the Fed signals a faster pivot toward rate cuts, investor confidence could rebound swiftly.
“If the probability of a May rate cut rises from 50% to 75%, we could see a meaningful market recovery.”
Currently, market expectations suggest only a 4% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with a 96% likelihood the Fed will hold rates steady due to persistent inflation concerns. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler has publicly supported maintaining current rates, reinforcing this cautious stance.
However, Rohit Jain, Managing Director at CoinDCX Ventures, warns that prolonged monetary tightening could deepen risk-off sentiment.
“Hesitation on rate cuts may trigger further selling pressure—Bitcoin could test $70,000 support, with altcoins like Ethereum and Solana facing even greater downside.”
2. Government or Institutional Buying as a Game-Changer
Beyond macro shifts, Kendrick highlights the potential for sovereign or institutional adoption as a powerful upside driver. Should the U.S. or another major economy begin accumulating Bitcoin officially—even in small amounts—it could significantly boost market sentiment and validate BTC as a strategic reserve asset.
Historical precedents like El Salvador’s adoption offer early signals, but widespread governmental interest would represent a structural shift in demand dynamics.
👉 Explore how institutional inflows are reshaping Bitcoin’s future value.
Technical Outlook: Support Levels and Downside Risks
While the long-term thesis remains intact, short-term risks persist. Standard Chartered previously warned that if Bitcoin breaks below $76,500, it may retest the $69,000 support zone—a critical level watched by traders and analysts alike.
That said, Kendrick remains unfazed by near-term fluctuations:
“Short-term volatility doesn’t shake my confidence in the $200,000 target. In fact, ongoing market stress may increase the likelihood of Fed easing—which only strengthens my long-term bullish case.”
This contrarian view underscores a key principle in digital asset investing: periods of fear often precede major rallies, especially when macro conditions eventually shift in favor of risk assets.
FAQ: Understanding Bitcoin’s Path to $200,000
Q: Why is Bitcoin dropping if there are no issues with the network?
A: The decline is driven by macroeconomic factors and risk-off sentiment in global markets—not technical or fundamental weaknesses in Bitcoin itself.
Q: What would make Bitcoin rebound strongly?
A: Two main triggers: a clear signal from the Federal Reserve that rate cuts are coming, or news of official adoption by a major government or financial institution.
Q: Is $76,500 an important level for Bitcoin?
A: Yes. If this support fails, Bitcoin could fall toward $69,000. Holding above $76,500 increases the chances of resuming an upward trend.
Q: How realistic is the $200,000 prediction by end of 2025?
A: While ambitious, it’s grounded in rising institutional interest, potential monetary easing, and increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a macro hedge.
Q: How does stock market performance affect Bitcoin?
A: As investor sentiment shifts, so does capital flow. When equities sell off—especially tech stocks—Bitcoin often follows due to its classification as a high-beta risk asset.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin during this dip?
A: That depends on your risk tolerance and investment horizon. From a long-term perspective, pullbacks amid strong fundamentals can present strategic entry points.
👉 Learn how to time your next move with real-time market insights.
Final Thoughts: Volatility Is Temporary, Fundamentals Remain Strong
The current phase of consolidation reflects normal market behavior amid uncertainty. Rather than signaling weakness, it highlights Bitcoin’s integration into the global financial system—where it now reacts predictably to macro forces like interest rates and geopolitical developments.
Standard Chartered’s $200,000 forecast for 2025 hinges on two assumptions: continued structural demand growth and eventual monetary easing. Both appear increasingly plausible given current economic trajectories.
For investors, the message is clear: focus on long-term catalysts over short-term noise. While the path may be volatile, the destination could be transformative.
As macro conditions evolve and institutional adoption accelerates, Bitcoin stands poised to reclaim momentum—and potentially exceed even the most optimistic price targets.