The cryptocurrency market has once again demonstrated its resilience and complexity, as Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders maintain their positions despite a significant price correction. Even as Bitcoin dipped to a four-month low of $76,600 on March 11, investor behavior suggests a shift in market sentiment — one that could indicate a more nuanced and mature cycle unfolding in 2025.
Recent on-chain data reveals that long-term holders are not only resisting the urge to sell but are also accumulating profits while minimizing disposal pressure. This behavior marks a departure from previous market tops, where widespread profit-taking typically signaled the beginning of bearish momentum.
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Long-Term Holders Show Strong Conviction
A key indicator of investor confidence lies in the behavior of long-term holders — defined as wallet addresses that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days. According to a March 18 market report by Glassnode, these investors have shown "largely subdued activity" with a "notable decline in selling pressure."
One critical metric highlighting this trend is the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) — a measure that tracks when long-term holders are spending coins at a profit. The data shows a clear slowdown in spending velocity, suggesting these investors are choosing to hold rather than cash out.
Glassnode noted:
“This indicates a greater willingness to hold rather than spend among this cohort. It may represent a shift in market sentiment, with long-term holder behavior transitioning from selling to holding.”
This trend is further supported by the recovery in Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders, which had been declining for months but has now begun to rise again. In contrast to typical bull market peaks — where sustained profit-taking leads to supply outflows — current behavior reflects patience and conviction.
Historically, major market tops have been accompanied by intense selling pressure from long-term holders, often marking the start of extended downturns. However, in this phase of the cycle, many long-term investors continue to retain their gains, especially during what appears to be a late-cycle correction.
This could imply that a significant portion of the market still anticipates higher prices later in 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors, institutional adoption, or potential regulatory clarity.
“This interesting observation may suggest that we are heading toward a more unique market dynamic,” Glassnode added.
New Whale Accumulation Reshapes Market Structure
While long-term holders consolidate their positions, a new class of investors is emerging as a powerful force in the market: new Bitcoin whales.
According to data from CryptoQuant, a growing number of whale wallets — defined as addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC with an average holding age of less than six months — have been actively accumulating Bitcoin since late 2024.
These “new whales” have collectively acquired over 1 million BTC since November 2024, positioning themselves as one of the most influential player groups in the current market cycle.
Onchained, an independent analyst at CryptoQuant, highlighted in a March 7 report that the pace of accumulation has accelerated sharply in recent weeks — with over 200,000 BTC added in just one month.
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This influx suggests increasing participation from institutional-grade investors or high-net-worth individuals who are confident in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Their activity contrasts with retail-driven sell-offs often seen during corrections, indicating a structural shift in market composition.
The growing influence of these new whales may also contribute to reduced volatility and stronger price support levels, as large holders are less likely to panic-sell during short-term dips.
Market Sentiment: Diverging Views on the Bull Cycle
Despite growing evidence of strong holder conviction and institutional interest, opinions remain divided on whether the current bull run has peaked.
Some industry executives have described the recent price decline as a “normal correction” — a natural part of any healthy market cycle. They argue that while momentum has cooled temporarily, the broader narrative remains intact, and the top has not yet been reached.
Factors such as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, growing global adoption, and potential monetary policy shifts in major economies could reignite bullish momentum in the coming months.
However, not all analysts share this optimism. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, has stated that the Bitcoin bull cycle is already over. He predicts that prices will trend sideways or downward over the next 6 to 12 months, citing weakening on-chain fundamentals and reduced exchange inflows.
This divergence in outlook underscores the complexity of today’s crypto market — no longer driven solely by retail speculation but shaped by institutional flows, macro trends, and evolving investor psychology.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What defines a long-term Bitcoin holder?
A: A long-term holder is typically defined as a wallet address that has held Bitcoin for at least 155 days. This metric helps analysts distinguish between speculative traders and investors with strong conviction.
Q: Why is low selling pressure from long-term holders bullish?
A: When long-term holders refrain from selling, it reduces supply on the market and signals confidence in future price appreciation. This can lead to stronger price support and set the stage for the next upward move.
Q: Who are the “new whales” in the Bitcoin market?
A: New whales are large investors who have acquired at least 1,000 BTC within the past six months. Their aggressive accumulation suggests strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and may reflect institutional-grade interest.
Q: Does a price drop always mean the bull market is over?
A: No. Corrections are common during bull cycles and often healthy for sustainable growth. What matters more is investor behavior — such as whether long-term holders are exiting or accumulating.
Q: How can I track whale activity and on-chain trends?
A: On-chain analytics platforms provide real-time data on whale movements, supply distribution, and holder behavior. Monitoring these metrics can help identify shifts in market sentiment before they reflect in price.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: Every investment decision should be based on personal financial goals and risk tolerance. While current data shows strong holder conviction, markets remain volatile. Conduct thorough research before making any trades.
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Note: This article does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are subject to high market risk. Readers should conduct independent research before making any financial decisions.