The fourth Bitcoin halving has officially taken place, marking a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency’s history. At block height 840,000—reached on April 20, 2024, at 08:09:27 UTC—the block reward for miners was slashed from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This event, occurring roughly every four years, is a core mechanism in Bitcoin’s design to ensure long-term scarcity and controlled supply issuance.
Historically, Bitcoin halvings have preceded significant price movements. While the market showed signs of weakness just before the event—with prices briefly dipping below $60,000—the post-halving period has already seen a rebound, with Bitcoin surpassing $66,000 by April 22.
But what does this mean for investors, miners, and the broader crypto ecosystem?
Understanding the Bitcoin Halving Mechanism
Bitcoin halving is an algorithmic event built into the protocol that reduces the rate at which new bitcoins are created. Every 210,000 blocks mined (approximately every four years), the mining reward is cut in half. This process will continue until all 21 million bitcoins are mined—projected to occur around the year 2140.
This deflationary model is central to Bitcoin’s value proposition. By limiting new supply over time, halvings reinforce scarcity, a key driver behind its appeal as "digital gold."
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Historical Trends: What Past Halvings Tell Us
Looking back at previous halving cycles offers valuable insights:
- 2012 Halving: Pre-halving 60-day return: -0.6%; post-halving 180-day return: +955.7%
- 2016 Halving: Pre-halving 60-day return: +43.4%; post-halving 180-day return: +39.1%
- 2020 Halving: Pre-halving 60-day return: +59.6%; post-halving 180-day return: +74.4%
- 2024 Halving: Pre-halving 60-day return: +25.4% (as of reporting)
While short-term volatility is common—especially leading up to the event—the historical trend shows strong bullish momentum emerging within six months after each halving.
According to analysis by Everbright Securities’ overseas TMT team, capital tends to front-run the reduced supply expectations, positioning ahead of the halving. The data suggests that despite near-term corrections, the medium-to-long-term outlook remains positive.
Market Reaction: Will Bitcoin Hit $100,000?
Despite optimistic forecasts, the immediate lead-up to the 2024 halving was marked by price weakness. On April 19, Bitcoin dropped over 6%, briefly falling below $60,000—the lowest since March. A week-long downtrend had already erased more than 8% in value.
Joel Kruger, Market Strategist at LMAX Group, noted that large holders ("whales") were hesitant to accumulate during the dip, signaling cautious sentiment. He identified $59,000 as a critical support level.
“If Bitcoin holds above $59K, it retains its path toward new all-time highs and potentially $100,000,” Kruger said. “A break below could open the door to a deeper correction toward $45,000–$50,000.”
Still, many in the industry remain bullish long-term. One crypto insider shared with Time Weekly that while short-term consolidation is expected, the overall trend remains upward as long as support holds between $50,000 and $60,000.
“Post-halving bull runs typically emerge around six months out,” they noted. “Whether we see $150,000 depends on macro conditions and institutional adoption.”
Hong Kong Advances Into Spot Crypto ETFs
In parallel with the halving, regulatory progress in Asia is gaining momentum. Hong Kong has emerged as a key player in crypto asset regulation.
As of mid-April 2024, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) granted preliminary approval to three major asset managers—BoC International, CSOP Asset Management (Hong Kong), and Harvest Fund Management—to launch spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
This move positions Hong Kong ahead of the U.S., where only Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved so far. Notably, Hong Kong’s framework allows both cash and in-kind creation/redemption mechanisms, enhancing liquidity and pricing efficiency.
According to Huatai Securities, Hong Kong has also issued licenses to two virtual asset exchanges—Hash Blockchain and OSL—and approved 19 firms for virtual asset management operations. The government is further moving to regulate over-the-counter (OTC) crypto trading.
These developments signal a strategic push by Hong Kong to become a global hub for digital assets.
Mining Economics Under Pressure
While investors watch price charts, miners face growing operational challenges.
With block rewards now halved, profitability hinges on two factors: electricity costs and network difficulty. However, competition isn’t just among miners—it's increasingly cross-industry.
Artificial intelligence (AI) firms are driving surging demand for power and data centers, particularly in regions like Texas where many mining operations are based. Tech giants can often outbid miners for energy contracts due to higher margins and stable revenue streams.
This dynamic is squeezing profit margins for smaller mining outfits. As AI workloads consume more grid capacity, electricity prices rise—directly impacting mining economics.
Moreover, increased network congestion and rising hashrate mean that only large-scale, efficient operations can remain competitive.
Yet there’s a silver lining: rising transaction fees driven by new on-chain activity may help offset declining block rewards.
Runes Protocol Launches: A New Era for Bitcoin Fees
At the exact moment of the halving—block 840,000—the Runes protocol went live.
Runes is a new fungible token standard built on Bitcoin’s UTXO model, designed to improve upon earlier protocols like Ordinals and BRC-20. Unlike previous standards that rely heavily on inscription methods, Runes enables direct deployment of tokens within unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), using the OP_RETURN field for data storage.
Within just two days of launch, Runes activity accounted for 57.7% of total Bitcoin transaction fees on April 20 alone. At one point, fees from Runes transactions reached 37.626 BTC in a single block—over ten times the new block reward of 3.125 BTC.
👉 See how emerging protocols like Runes are reshaping Bitcoin’s economic model.
Guosheng Securities highlighted that Runes could “revive on-chain activity and significantly boost miner revenues through transaction fees,” potentially offsetting some of the impact of reduced block subsidies.
FAQ: Your Bitcoin Halving Questions Answered
Q: What exactly happens during a Bitcoin halving?
A: The block reward given to miners for validating transactions is cut in half. This occurs every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and helps control inflation by slowing down new Bitcoin issuance.
Q: How many times has Bitcoin halved so far?
A: Four times—occurring in November 2012, July 2016, May 2020, and April 2024.
Q: Does the halving directly cause price increases?
A: Not immediately. While past halvings were followed by bull markets within 6–18 months, short-term price action depends on broader market sentiment, macroeconomic factors, and investor behavior.
Q: Can miners survive with lower rewards?
A: Only those with low-cost energy access and high-efficiency hardware will remain profitable. Rising transaction fees from protocols like Runes may help sustain mining economics long-term.
Q: What is the Runes protocol?
A: Runes is a new token standard on Bitcoin that allows creation of fungible tokens directly within UTXOs. It aims to reduce network bloat and improve usability compared to earlier standards like BRC-20.
Q: Is Hong Kong’s crypto ETF approval significant?
A: Yes. By approving both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs—and allowing cash/in-kind redemptions—Hong Kong strengthens its position as a regulated gateway for Asian investors into digital assets.
The Road Ahead: Scarcity Meets Innovation
The 2024 Bitcoin halving is more than just a technical milestone—it’s a convergence point of scarcity economics, institutional adoption, and technological evolution.
With supply growth now permanently reduced and new use cases like Runes boosting fee income, Bitcoin’s underlying economic model appears resilient. Meanwhile, regulatory clarity in markets like Hong Kong paves the way for broader financial integration.
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While short-term volatility persists, the long-term narrative remains intact: Bitcoin continues to evolve—not just as money, but as a platform for innovation.
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