Market Overview: BTC and ETH Price Movement (March 3 – March 10, 2025)
Over the past week, from March 3 to March 10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced heightened volatility amid macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment. Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 10.7%, dropping from $92,200 to $82,300, while Ethereum (ETH) saw an even steeper fall of 14.8%, sliding from $2,430 to $2,070. These movements reflect growing caution in the digital asset space as broader financial markets react to evolving global risks.
This period was marked by sharp intraweek swings, failed breakouts, and reactive trading behavior driven by both on-chain dynamics and external macro forces. Despite lingering bullish fundamentals, the lack of sustained momentum has extended the correction phase, leaving traders assessing support levels and potential reversal signals.
Technical Outlook for BTC/USD
Bitcoin’s price action over the week failed to establish a clear directional bias. After an initial rebound attempt, BTC remained trapped within a wide consolidation range. Key resistance levels lie between $89,000 and $93,000, with stronger barriers at $95,000–$96,000, followed by $100,000–$102,000, and ultimately $110,000 as long-term resistance.
On the downside, immediate support is found between $79,000 and $73,000. A decisive break below $73,000 could trigger deeper selling pressure, potentially pushing prices toward the **$65,000–$67,500** zone. Such a move would complicate the current medium-term bullish outlook and extend the timeline for recovery.
While we maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory—driven by adoption trends and structural demand—the absence of strong buying conviction has delayed the expected upward breakout. Traders should monitor volume patterns and institutional positioning closely in the coming days for early signs of accumulation.
Dominant Market Themes Influencing Crypto
Macroeconomic Pressures Resurface
Global risk markets were rattled this week as renewed fears of a trade war emerged following announcements of new U.S. tariffs. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose from 20 to 26, signaling increased investor anxiety. This spike in volatility spilled over into bond markets, with sell-offs observed in German bunds, Japanese JGBs, UK gilts, and U.S. Treasuries.
These developments suggest growing concern about inflation persistence and central bank credibility. The Trump administration’s push to lower long-term interest rates and reduce refinancing costs may provide temporary relief but risks triggering further capital outflows from U.S. risk assets if perceived as fiscally unsustainable.
Additionally, weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data added to concerns about economic resilience. Market participants worry that ongoing fiscal tightening—symbolized by the controversial DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) reforms—could prolong softness in labor and consumer metrics.
Crypto-Specific Catalysts and Reactions
Within the crypto ecosystem, sentiment swung dramatically based on political headlines. A brief rally sparked by a Trump tweet quickly fizzled out as equities markets reversed course. BTC dropped from nearly $95,000** down to **$81,000–$82,000, mirroring broader risk-off behavior.
A temporary reprieve came midweek when former President Trump signed an executive order outlining plans to utilize existing Bitcoin holdings for a national cryptocurrency reserve. While the announcement stopped short of committing to future purchases—disappointing some bulls—it was still viewed positively for Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a strategic asset.
By Friday evening, optimism from the crypto summit helped BTC briefly reclaim the $90,000–$91,000 range. However, the event yielded no concrete policy announcements or regulatory clarity, leading to fading momentum. In low-liquidity conditions on Sunday night, BTC plunged below $80,000**, with ETH falling under **$2,000 and Solana dropping beneath $125.
BTC Implied Volatility: Calm Before the Storm?
Despite extreme price swings during the week, BTC’s implied volatility (IV) ended virtually unchanged on a week-over-week basis. Ahead of the crypto summit, IV spiked due to speculative positioning and elevated overnight risk pricing—peaking at expectations of 5% daily moves.
High actual volatility supported these elevated IV readings. However, after the summit concluded without major surprises and price action remained subdued, implied volatility entered oversold territory. The March 14 expiry contracts briefly saw IV dip to 47, before rebounding sharply following Sunday’s sell-off.
Currently, realized (actual) volatility remains elevated between 55 and 60, among the highest levels seen recently. This reflects ongoing uncertainty as the market searches for equilibrium in a new price range.
Looking ahead, we anticipate realized volatility will gradually decline to the mid-40s over the next several days. This normalization assumes no new black swan events and cleaner positioning across derivatives markets—a sign that traders are reducing leveraged exposures after recent turbulence.
BTC Skew and Kurtosis: Sentiment Under the Microscope
Skew: Bearish Short-Term Bias, Bullish Long-Term Lean
Short-dated options skew tilted bearish this week, indicating stronger demand for downside protection. This aligns with observed price action—sharp downward moves outweighed rallies (except for the Trump tweet bounce).
However, in longer-dated expiries starting from April and May, skew has shifted upward. This suggests structural confidence that BTC won’t sustain major losses over the medium term. Investors appear reluctant to establish large short positions below current levels, reflecting underlying belief in fundamental support.
Kurtosis: Flattening Smile Amid Range-Bound Action
Kurtosis—measuring tail risk and distribution “peakedness”—ended the week largely unchanged despite significant intraweek fluctuations. As BTC traded within a tighter range later in the week, traders increasingly favored bull call spreads and bear put spreads, reducing open interest in far-out-of-the-money options.
This reduced weighting on the wings of the volatility smile temporarily suppressed kurtosis. However, we recommend maintaining exposure to tail-risk protection via out-of-the-money puts or calls depending on directional bias. Unexpected macro shocks or regulatory news could reignite extreme moves at any moment.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did Bitcoin drop despite positive news like the crypto reserve announcement?
A: While Trump’s executive order was symbolically supportive of Bitcoin, it did not include commitments for future purchases or broader regulatory clarity. Markets often react to expectations—when reality falls short, even good news can trigger sell-offs.
Q: Is the recent drop a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction?
A: With BTC now testing key support near $79K–$73K and volatility peaking, this phase represents a classic accumulation zone. Long-term investors may view dips as opportunities, but short-term traders should wait for confirmation of sustained buying pressure before entering.
Q: How do macroeconomic factors like bond yields affect Bitcoin?
A: Rising bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC. Additionally, global risk-off sentiment often leads to correlated sell-offs across equities, crypto, and commodities until safe-haven flows stabilize markets.
Q: What does rising implied volatility mean for options traders?
A: Higher IV increases option premiums, benefiting sellers. Conversely, buyers pay more but gain leverage on anticipated big moves. When IV drops suddenly—as post-summit—it can hurt long-option positions even if price moves favorably.
Q: Could BTC retest $65K if support breaks?
A: Yes. A close below $73K could open the path to $65K–$67.5K, especially if accompanied by weak volume recovery or negative macro headlines. However, such a move would likely be oversold and attract strong institutional buying interest.
Q: What role do ETFs play in current market dynamics?
A: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have increased institutional participation and improved liquidity. However, outflows during downturns can amplify selling pressure. Monitoring net ETF flows provides valuable insight into professional investor sentiment.
Final Thoughts and Forward Guidance
The week from March 3 to March 10 underscored Bitcoin’s sensitivity not only to internal crypto developments but also to global macro trends. While the core narrative remains intact—digital scarcity, growing adoption, geopolitical hedging—the path higher is proving bumpier than anticipated.
Traders should prepare for continued choppy action until clearer catalysts emerge—whether regulatory milestones, macro stabilization, or sustained ETF inflows.
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With realized volatility near multi-week highs and positioning resetting after aggressive swings, the stage may be set for a breakout—up or down—in the near term. Stay alert, manage risk diligently, and keep focus on high-probability setups backed by volume and structure.