The crypto market often emerges from despair, grows amid skepticism, matures through optimism, and eventually collapses in euphoria.
After months of sideways and downward pressure that tested even the most steadfast investors, signs are mounting that the tide may finally be turning. What once felt like an endless bear market grind has quietly transformed into a reawakening of momentum. Despite lingering doubts and widespread pessimism earlier this year, multiple on-chain and market indicators now suggest that a new bull cycle could be gaining steam.
Let’s examine five critical data points that signal renewed strength in the cryptocurrency market — and why seasoned observers believe we may be standing at the edge of a major upswing.
📈 Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows Signal Strong Institutional Demand
Bitcoin spot ETFs have become one of the most reliable gauges of institutional and retail investor sentiment since their U.S. approval earlier this year. Unlike direct trading, these funds reflect long-term capital commitments, often involving fees and custody structures that indicate serious intent.
To date, total net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $20.66 billion — a clear vote of confidence from traditional finance players. More telling is the recent trend:
- Since October 1, there have been 7 days of net inflows versus only 6 days of outflows
Major inflow days include:
- October 14: $555 million
- October 16 & 17: over $450 million each day
- October 15: $370 million
While the number of inflow and outflow days is nearly balanced, the magnitude tells a different story — inflows are consistently several times larger than outflows. Even Ethereum spot ETFs, which initially struggled to gain traction, saw a rare $48.4 million single-day inflow in October.
This imbalance suggests that while some short-term traders may be taking profits, long-term buyers are stepping in with greater conviction.
👉 Discover how institutional capital is shaping the next phase of crypto growth
💰 Stablecoin Supply Nears All-Time High
Stablecoins serve as the "dry powder" of the crypto ecosystem — representing capital ready to deploy into risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. When stablecoin supply rises, it often precedes bullish moves.
The total stablecoin market cap peaked at $186.3 billion in mid-2022**, then gradually declined during the bear market. However, since late 2023, a steady resurgence has taken place. As of now, the stablecoin supply has climbed to **over $172.3 billion, edging close to its historical peak.
This rebound indicates that investors are not just holding crypto — they’re positioning cash-like assets within the ecosystem, preparing for potential upside. The fact that this buildup occurred before a major price surge suggests anticipation rather than FOMO.
When stablecoins start moving out of wallets and onto exchanges, it's typically a precursor to buying pressure. We may not be far from that inflection point.
✅ 95% of Bitcoin Holders Now in Profit
One of the most powerful psychological indicators in crypto is unrealized profit/loss across Bitcoin addresses. This metric reveals what percentage of holders are sitting on gains — a strong proxy for market sentiment.
Historically:
- When most holders are in loss (blue zone), it signals capitulation and potential market bottoms
- When most are in profit (yellow/red zones), it reflects euphoria and possible tops
Currently, the metric has risen from deep blue into the yellow profitability zone. According to IntoTheBlock, 95% of Bitcoin addresses are now in profit — a significant shift from just a few months ago when many were underwater.
This widespread profitability boosts confidence and encourages further investment. However, it also raises caution: such high profit levels can lead to short-term pullbacks as traders lock in gains. Still, historically, sustained periods above 90% profitability have preceded or coincided with strong bull runs.
🐳 Long-Term Holders Are Accumulating Aggressively
The behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders (those who haven’t moved their coins in 155+ days) offers insight into smart money activity. These investors typically buy during downturns and sell near tops — acting counter-cyclically.
Data shows a clear accumulation trend beginning in July 2024, with the long-term holder supply curve turning sharply upward. This suggests experienced players are confident in future price appreciation and are using dips as buying opportunities.
Even more telling: new whale addresses are accumulating BTC at an unprecedented rate. Per CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, this kind of coordinated buying hasn’t been seen before — and crucially, much of it appears unrelated to ETF inflows.
These whales aren't following the crowd; they're creating the next wave.
👉 See how top traders identify accumulation patterns before price breaks out
📊 All-Time High in Bitcoin Futures Open Interest
Open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts hit a record **$39.7 billion**, surpassing the previous high of $38 billion set earlier this year. This milestone reflects growing market participation and leveraged positioning.
High open interest usually follows strong price action and signals increasing bullish sentiment. While excessive leverage can lead to volatility or short-term corrections (especially if liquidations spike), sustained growth in open interest often confirms genuine momentum.
Notably, open interest remained elevated throughout the summer — even during price stagnation — indicating persistent belief in a rebound. Now that price is responding, the stage could be set for further upside.
🔍 FAQ: Addressing Common Questions
Q: Does high open interest increase crash risk?
A: Elevated open interest can amplify volatility, especially if prices reverse suddenly and trigger mass liquidations. However, when accompanied by strong spot market fundamentals (like ETF inflows), it’s more likely a sign of maturation than fragility.
Q: Is stablecoin growth sustainable?
A: Yes — stablecoin issuance is typically backed by reserves and regulated oversight (especially for USDT and USDC). Growth reflects real demand for on-chain liquidity, not speculative inflation.
Q: What happens when 95% of holders are in profit?
A: It often leads to short-term profit-taking, which may cause pullbacks. But in strong bull markets, this phase can last weeks or months as new capital enters and pushes prices higher.
Q: Are long-term holders always right?
A: Not infallible, but their track record is strong. They tend to avoid emotional trading and focus on macro trends, making their accumulation patterns valuable leading indicators.
Q: Could another macro shock derail the rally?
A: Always possible — geopolitical events or tighter-than-expected monetary policy could impact risk assets. But with Fed rate cuts expected in late 2024, liquidity conditions are likely to remain supportive.
🔮 Final Outlook: The Foundation for a New Bull Run Is Being Laid
Despite months of uncertainty and sideways movement, key metrics now point toward strengthening fundamentals:
- Institutional demand via Bitcoin ETFs is accelerating
- Stablecoin supply is nearing all-time highs
- The vast majority of holders are back in profit
- Smart money is accumulating aggressively
- Futures market participation has reached record levels
Macro conditions also support further gains. With anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in November and December 2024, global liquidity is poised to expand — benefiting risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
History repeats: in 2023, a similar summer lull gave way to explosive growth starting in October. Today’s parallels are hard to ignore.
👉 Stay ahead of the next breakout with real-time data and advanced analytics
While no one can predict the exact timing or magnitude of what comes next, the pieces are aligning. After nearly six months of doubt, the crypto market may no longer be waiting for a bull run — it might already be in one.