The crypto market has been abuzz with one pressing question: Can Ethereum (ETH) recover its momentum against Bitcoin (BTC)? Recently, ETH has significantly underperformed compared to BTC, reaching its weakest level in over three and a half years on September 18. The last time the ETH/BTC trading pair hit such a low was back in 2021. This sharp decline raises a critical debate — is this a golden buying opportunity for Ethereum bulls, or merely the beginning of a prolonged period of underperformance?
While Bitcoin has been consolidating within a tight range for months, many analysts anticipate a breakout in the fourth quarter of 2025, potentially pushing BTC to new all-time highs. However, the same optimism isn't being extended to Ethereum. According to Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, there’s an 85% chance that Ether will not reach a new price high in 2025. That’s a sobering statistic for investors hoping for a strong rally.
👉 Discover how market sentiment could shift in favor of altcoins like Ethereum
Despite these bearish signals, there are still reasons for cautious optimism. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, recently suggested in a blog post that Ethereum could emerge as a “potential contrarian bet by year-end.” With growing institutional interest and ongoing network upgrades, could ETH be poised for a comeback?
Let’s dive into the technical and fundamental factors shaping the ETH/BTC ratio to assess whether Ethereum might finally outperform Bitcoin again.
Understanding the ETH/BTC Ratio
The ETH/BTC trading pair measures how much Ethereum you can buy with one Bitcoin. It’s a key metric for gauging relative strength between the two largest cryptocurrencies. When the ratio rises, ETH is outperforming BTC; when it falls, Bitcoin is gaining ground.
Over the past year, the ratio has trended downward, reflecting weaker demand for ETH relative to BTC. Several macro and micro factors have contributed to this shift:
- Bitcoin dominance resurgence: Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have fueled demand for BTC, overshadowing altcoins.
- Delayed Ethereum catalysts: While Ethereum remains the leading smart contract platform, anticipated upgrades and scalability improvements have taken longer than expected.
- Market risk-off sentiment: In uncertain macroeconomic conditions, investors often flock to Bitcoin as digital gold, leaving riskier assets like altcoins behind.
However, history shows that extended periods of ETH underperformance are often followed by strong catch-up rallies — especially during bull cycles driven by decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT activity.
Weekly Chart Analysis: A Symmetrical Triangle Takes Shape
On the weekly timeframe, the ETH/BTC pair is forming a symmetrical triangle, a neutral pattern that typically precedes a significant breakout — either upward or downward.
ETH/BTC Weekly Chart – Source: TradingView
This formation indicates indecision between buyers and sellers:
- Bulls are defending the lower trendline support.
- Bears are aggressively holding the upper resistance.
Key technical indicators paint a cautious picture:
- Both the 50-week and 200-week moving averages are sloping downward.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory (~30), suggesting selling pressure may be exhausting.
A break below the triangle’s lower boundary could accelerate losses toward long-term support near 0.035 BTC. Conversely, a sustained breakout above the upper trendline could trigger a powerful reversal, with a measured move target around 0.18 BTC — well above the previous all-time high of 0.15 BTC.
For now, price action remains confined within the pattern. Traders should watch for volume-supported breakouts to confirm the next directional move.
Daily Chart: Signs of Potential Reversal?
Zooming into the daily chart reveals that ETH/BTC has been trading within a descending channel, marked by lower highs and lower lows — a classic bearish trend.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart – Source: TradingView
Yet, there are early signs of potential bullish divergence:
- The RSI has formed a positive divergence, meaning price made a lower low while momentum held higher — often a precursor to reversal.
- The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at ~0.04 BTC has begun to flatten, signaling slowing downside momentum.
A decisive close above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near 0.04 BTC, would strengthen the case for a trend change. More importantly, a breakout above the descending channel resistance would confirm that bears are losing control.
On the flip side, if price fails to gain traction and drops below 0.038 BTC, the bullish outlook would be invalidated in the short term. That could open the door to retesting channel support near 0.035 BTC.
👉 Learn how to identify reversal patterns before they happen
Fundamental Catalysts That Could Boost ETH
Technical analysis tells part of the story, but fundamentals may ultimately determine whether Ethereum can reclaim leadership from Bitcoin.
1. Ethereum Network Upgrades
Ongoing improvements like Proto-Danksharding aim to drastically reduce transaction costs and increase throughput on Layer 2 networks. If successful, this could reignite developer activity and user adoption across DeFi and Web3 applications.
2. Spot Ethereum ETF Speculation
Though no approval has been confirmed yet, rumors persist that U.S. regulators may greenlight spot ETH ETFs in 2025. Such a development would likely bring massive institutional capital into Ethereum — mirroring BTC’s ETF-driven rally.
3. Increased Staking Yields
With over 30% of ETH supply staked, the network continues to reward long-term holders. As yields remain attractive (~3–5%), staking provides a strong floor for investor confidence.
These catalysts won’t move markets overnight, but they build a compelling long-term narrative for ETH outperformance — especially if Bitcoin stabilizes and altcoin season begins.
FAQ: Your Questions About ETH/BTC Answered
Q: Why is ETH underperforming BTC recently?
A: Several factors contribute: stronger institutional demand for Bitcoin via ETFs, slower-than-expected Ethereum ecosystem growth, and overall risk-off market sentiment favoring BTC as “digital gold.”
Q: What does ETH/BTC mean for crypto investors?
A: It reflects relative strength between two major assets. A rising ratio favors altcoin season; a falling one suggests Bitcoin dominance is increasing.
Q: Is now a good time to buy ETH with BTC?
A: From a contrarian perspective, yes — especially if technical indicators show oversold conditions and positive divergences. However, confirm with broader market trends before entering.
Q: What would trigger an ETH/BTC rally?
A: Key triggers include spot ETH ETF approvals, major network upgrades reducing fees, resurgence in DeFi TVL, or a broad altcoin market rotation.
Q: How low can ETH/BTC go?
A: Technically, support lies near 0.035 BTC on the weekly chart. A break below could lead to further downside, though fundamentals may limit extreme drops.
Q: Can ETH surpass its previous high against BTC?
A: Yes — if bullish momentum builds and the symmetrical triangle resolves upward. The measured target from the pattern points to 0.18 BTC.
Final Thoughts: A Contrarian Opportunity?
While Ethereum’s current performance against Bitcoin looks bleak, history suggests that such extended downtrends often set up powerful reversals. With key technical patterns forming and potential fundamental catalysts on the horizon, ETH may be shaping up as one of the most compelling contrarian plays in crypto for late 2025.
Traders should monitor both technical breakouts and regulatory developments closely. A confirmed move above the descending channel or triangle resistance could signal the start of a new bullish phase.
👉 Stay ahead with real-time data and tools to track ETH/BTC movements
For long-term investors, accumulating ETH during periods of relative weakness — especially below 0.04 BTC — could offer substantial upside if market sentiment shifts.
Core Keywords: Ethereum, Bitcoin, ETH/BTC ratio, cryptocurrency analysis, technical analysis, altcoin season, crypto investment, market trends